Cuba is undergoing one of the most critical phases in its population dynamics. Since 2019, the country has reported a natural decline, with more deaths than births, as stated by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz on Tuesday during the fourth ordinary session of the National Assembly in its tenth legislature.
In other aspects of the matter at hand, the communist leader stated that 24.4 percent of the population is over 60 years old, which reflects a significant demographic aging.
Currently, for every thousand people aged 0 to 14, there are 1,511 individuals over 60, confirming a structural change that compromises generational balance.
To make matters worse, the projections are quite discouraging. The figures for the end of 2024 indicate an even more troubling picture: approximately 70,000 births are expected, which represents a decrease of 18,000 compared to the previous year, while the number of deaths is estimated to be 120,000.
This trend, which has intensified in recent years, poses a social and economic challenge for the country, creating a situation where aging and low birth rates hinder sustainable development and exacerbate the dependency on an aging population.
All of this is set against the backdrop of a deep migration process prevailing on the island, where a systemic crisis has left hundreds of thousands of families overwhelmed with despair.
The desire to leave Cuba is not isolated, as people struggle to survive—not to truly live—and each day it becomes increasingly difficult to access the essentials. In fact, Marrero Cruz added that more than three million people born on the island live abroad.
Frequently Asked Questions about Population Decline in Cuba
Why is the population in Cuba decreasing?
The population in Cuba is declining primarily due to an increasing number of deaths that surpass the number of births since 2019. Additionally, the country is experiencing a high rate of emigration, particularly among young people of working age, which further exacerbates the demographic issue.
What are the consequences of the aging population in Cuba?
The aging population in Cuba results in an increased economic dependency among older adults. This puts pressure on the social and economic services of the country, as there are fewer people of working age to support the growing elderly population. Furthermore, it impacts the sustainability of the pension system and could lead to an economic and social collapse if appropriate measures are not taken.
What is the impact of population decline on the Cuban economy?
Population decline negatively impacts the Cuban economy by reducing the available workforce. This limits economic growth and increases the burden on the state to provide services and subsidies to an aging population. The decrease in the young population also means fewer entrepreneurs and less innovation, which can hinder the country's economic development.
What measures is the Cuban government taking to address population decline?
So far, the Cuban government has not implemented clear and effective policies to mitigate population decline. Although they claim to be monitoring demographic indicators and studying potential policies, no concrete solutions have been proposed to address aging and mass emigration. The government has also postponed conducting a population census, making proper planning difficult.
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