The economist Pedro Monreal warned about the stagnation in the rhetoric of Cuban leaders, after analyzing the report in the island's press about the latest meeting of the Council of Ministers.
The note about the recent meeting of the Council of Ministers of Cuba reveals a government body mired in tired rhetoric, a vague communication of results and actions, and an economic team apparently perplexed by the macro destabilization of the country," Monreal pointed out in X, a space he uses to analyze the Cuban economy.
He also expressed his concern about the fact that this monthly meeting held by the country's top leadership precedes the session of the National Assembly of People's Power (ANPP), to be held on July 17th at the Havana Convention Center.
For being the meeting prior to the parliamentary session in July, the note on the Council of Ministers is scant on data and substitutes them with vague allusions. It reports the well-known fact that the economy shrank in 2023, but continues to conceal the exact figure," warned the prominent economist, whose opinions are shared by many Cubans.
In the mentioned meeting, the Minister of Economy and Planning, Joaquín Alonso Vázquez, referred to the performance of the economy at the end of 2023, an activity that "shows a decrease compared to the previous year, and the estimated for the first semester of 2024," as reported in the officialist newspaper Granma.
Likewise, Granma points out that the first issue will be addressed in the National Assembly session, while the second one, the situation "continues to be complex".
Precisely, this statement sparked Monreal's opinion, which seeks to provoke a deeper analysis than what can be summarized by the official organ of the Communist Party of Cuba, Granma.
Reference is made, in a tangled manner, regarding the "behavior" of the economy in the 1st semester of 2024, without specifying any data on GDP growth or decline. It was mentioned that the situation remains complex, which appears to indicate that stagflation continues," highlighted the economist.
Montreal questioned the statement, without data, that talks about an "excessive" increase in prices, to which the government qualifies as "a totally speculative issue." "Speculation could influence, but inflation is mainly the result of the low supply response capacity and a monstrous fiscal deficit," it adds.
Assertion that is worrisome, especially when it is understood that "if the ministerial economic team truly believes that the rampant inflation since the 'reordering' is due to speculation and not to the structural transformations caused by the 'reordering', then they will have a very difficult time resolving the current tangles," warned.
In another message, Monreal criticizes the way in which the wording established by the media ends up confusing the reader.
A planned deficit for 2024 equivalent to 18.5% of GDP is not the kind of thing that can be put in the same sentence as "macroeconomic stabilization." That was the centerpiece of the "plan" that was presented, but now it seems that this "creature" is causing terror," he accused.
Meanwhile, he pointed out that "the proposed solution to reduce the deficit seems imprecise and would rather rely on a fortuitous event: the 'non-implementation' of planned expenses probably associated with the lack of foreign currency that does not allow for expenses to be executed in national currency within the framework of programs."
In general terms, the economist mentioned two issues that he considered, one of them being not very relevant, regarding the preparation of the Economic Plan and the State Budget for 2025 in the report. "Experience indicates that this preparation rather functions as a sort of bureaucratic exercise and as an act of ideological faith," he added.
The second, in his view more striking, concerns the mention of "postponing and even paralyzing investments that are not essential." On this point, he made two observations: "without investment, there is neither growth nor development, and so far the 'essential' investments have been those in tourism, will they continue?" he questioned.
Finally, he warned that maintaining the narrative of "wartime economy," used to justify the attempt of total control, "is not so much that there is a 'wartime economy,' but rather that one would have to believe it."
During the same meeting held in the month of April, this same governing body confirmed the worsening of the economic crisis in Cuba.
On that occasion, Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz said: "It is true that we will not be able to achieve the best productive levels or performance, but it is possible to make progress if we exploit collective intelligence to the fullest." A proposal that offers few solutions to an increasingly difficult context for the survival of Cubans.
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