Latin America and the Caribbean are facing an accelerated aging of their population, according to a report from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which projects that by 2050, individuals over 65 years old will account for nearly 19% of the region's inhabitants, double the current percentage.
This growth involves increasing from 65 million elderly individuals in 2024 to 138 million in just 25 years, a significant shift that presents major social and economic challenges, the organization noted in its latest demographic monitoring report.
The aging population is part of a demographic transition that has resulted in a faster-than-expected decline in birth and death rates, altering the age structure of the region, warned CEPAL.
In 1950, over 40% of the population was under the age of 15, but today that figure has dropped to 22%. Conversely, adults of working age now represent more than 67%, reflecting a drastic change in the demographic composition.
In addition, the median age has increased from 18 years in 1950 to 31 years in 2024, and it is expected to reach 40 years by 2050.
According to the study, the population of Latin America and the Caribbean reached 663 million people in 2024, which represents a 3.8% decrease from estimates made in the year 2000, when projections indicated a total of 689 million inhabitants.
CEPAL indicates that, according to current projections, the population of the region will reach its peak of approximately 730 million inhabitants by the year 2053.
At that time, projections indicated higher fertility and mortality rates for Latin America and the Caribbean, without anticipating the impact of migration movements or the demographic changes brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Latin America, regarded as the most unequal region in the world, saw an economic growth of 6.9% in 2021 as a rebound from the crisis caused by the pandemic. However, its growth rate slowed to 3.7% in 2022 and further down to 2.2% in 2023. In August, the CEPAL revised its projection for 2024, reducing it to 1.8%, three-tenths of a point below the previous estimate.
Furthermore, it highlights the urgency of ensuring policies that promote healthy and equitable aging, with particular attention to women, who traditionally bear the majority of family care responsibilities.
It also emphasizes that the challenges associated with aging are exacerbated in a context of economic inequality and a slowdown in regional growth, which in 2024 was well below initial expectations.
In the case of Cuba, the nation is experiencing a significant demographic transformation, characterized by a rapid aging of its population, due in part to a decline in births and an increasing migratory exodus.
The demographic outlook at the end of 2023 reveals a concerning aging population: 24.4% of Cubans were 60 years old or older, according to data presented by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) in the report "The Aging of the Population. Cuba and its Territories 2023."
As is no secret to anyone, the figure clearly reflects two realities: the impact of persistently low birth rates and an increasing migration of people in economically active age groups.
In July, the Cuban government shared official data this Friday showing that the island's population has decreased by more than 10% in the last three years.
The deputy head of ONEI, Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, acknowledged during the third ordinary session of the National Assembly of People's Power that by the end of 2023, the "effective population" of Cuba stands at 10,055,968 citizens, but by 2024 it will drop to less than 10 million.
The Cuban government defines "effective population" as anyone who, within a calendar year, was born in the country or in another country but permanently resides in Cuba, having accumulated 180 days or more of residence over the past 365 days, and who has not passed away.
The data shared during the presentation of the Migration Bill confirm a 10.1% decrease in the country's population compared to the records from December 31, 2020.
Frequently Asked Questions About Population Aging in Latin America and the Caribbean
How will the aging population affect Latin America and the Caribbean by 2050?
The aging population in Latin America and the Caribbean presents significant social and economic challenges. It is projected that by 2050, individuals over the age of 65 will make up nearly 19% of the region's population, which implies a substantial increase in the demand for health services, pensions, and long-term care, along with a potential reduction in the active workforce.
What is the current demographic situation in Cuba?
Cuba is experiencing a rapid aging of its population, with 24.4% of Cubans aged 60 or older by the end of 2023. This phenomenon is a result of persistently low birth rates and an increasing migratory exodus, which has caused the effective Cuban population to fall below 10 million inhabitants in 2024.
What projections does the UN have for the population of Cuba by 2100?
The UN projects that Cuba's population will fall below six million by 2100. This decline is attributed to factors such as the low birth rate, increasing mortality rates, and negative net migration, reflecting a trend of aging that will position Cuba among the world's oldest countries.
What measures are suggested to address the aging population in the region?
It is urgent to implement policies that promote healthy and equitable aging. ECLAC emphasizes the need to strengthen social protection systems, particularly for women, and to adapt economic and social policies to address the challenges of aging in a context of inequality and economic slowdown.
Filed under: