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The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reported in a recent analysis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period 2024-2025 that Cuba and Haiti are the only countries in Latin America experiencing three consecutive years of economic recession.
In the research, the GDP growth rate for the island was negative over the three years recorded: -1.0 (2023), -1.0 (2024), and -0.1 (2025), reflecting the serious difficulties faced by its national economy. In the case of Haiti, the situation is even more unfavorable: -1.9 (2023), -4.0 (2024), and -0.5 (2025).
The Cuban government announced last Monday a projected economic growth of 1% for the year 2025, as reported by the Minister of Economy and Planning, Joaquín Alonso Vázquez, during a session of the National Assembly.
This goal, which may seem modest at first glance, is set against the backdrop of a deep economic crisis that has impacted all productive sectors and severely affected the quality of life of the population.
As has been happening for some time, the regime in Havana blames the U.S. "blockade" for almost all its ills, including the economic downturn.
But after decades of hearing the same rhetoric, Cubans are no longer fooled by false figures regarding material damage caused by the embargo. They know that the sole culprit for the crisis is the government, with its insistence on maintaining a planned and state-run economy despite its obvious failure, and its opposition to the emerging private sector.
On the other hand, the CEPAL report on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region did not include information on the largest of the Antilles. According to Cuban economist Pedro Monreal, "the word Cuba doesn't even appear in the document," highlighting the lack of transparency and economic data provided by Cuban authorities.
While most countries in the region strive to provide clear figures and develop more effective strategies, opacity continues to characterize the management of the economy in Cuba.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Economic Recession in Cuba
Why is Cuba experiencing a prolonged economic recession?
Cuba is in an economic recession due to a combination of poor internal economic management, characterized by its state-planned and state-run economic model, along with a lack of significant foreign investments. This is compounded by external factors such as the U.S. embargo and the volatility of international markets. The Cuban government continues to blame the U.S. "blockade," but the reality is that its economic policies have been ineffective and opaque, negatively impacting all productive sectors of the country.
What are the economic projections for Cuba in 2025?
The Cuban government has announced a projected GDP growth of 1% for 2025; however, this forecast seems more like an aspiration than a realistic goal. The economy continues to face significant challenges, such as an outdated production system, resource shortages, and devastating inflation. Despite the official optimism, many experts believe that these projections are not feasible in the current context of structural crisis.
Why is foreign direct investment in Cuba an opaque issue?
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Cuba is a murky topic because the Cuban government does not provide clear and transparent data regarding its economic figures, as evidenced by the lack of information on Cuba in the CEPAL report. This lack of transparency complicates external assessments of the country's investment potential and reflects a strategy of concealing the economic reality that the island faces.
How does the economic policy of the Cuban regime affect the well-being of the population?
The economic policy of the Cuban regime has led to a significant decline in public services and a loss of purchasing power among workers. Stringent fiscal austerity and disproportionate investment in tourism have exacerbated social inequalities and worsened living conditions for the population. The combination of inflation, economic stagnation, and falling wages keeps the population in an increasingly precarious situation.
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