The American firm AccuWeather predicted between 11 and 15Tropical storms in the coming seasonhurricanes of the Atlantic, which begins on June 1st.
The meteorologists of the utility company inWeather forecast predict a less active season than most of those recorded since 1995, according to theforecast for 2023 published this Wednesday on its official website.
It also anticipates a similar number of storms compared to the 2022 season, although it clarifies that “that does not mean that there will not be dangers” and that preparations to face that period that ends in November 2023 must begin now.
The analysis also indicates that current projections indicate that the 2023 season will be close to the historical average, with 11-15 tropical storms with the names: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, José, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney.
Likewise, they maintain that in those six months between four and eight tropical storms will reach hurricane status, and that between one and three could be of great intensity.
A major hurricane is one that has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and is rated 3 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
"We are also projecting two to four direct impacts in the United States, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands," says senior meteorologist and hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski, who has been forecasting for AccuWeather for more than four decades.
The forecast explains that a typical hurricane season consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes and four direct impacts in the United States based on the average of years between 1990 and 2020.
AccuWeather highlights that the 2023 forecast was meticulously prepared and took into account a number of critical environmental factors.
They said some of the factors that will influence the season are related to the expected transition to the El Niño event, in addition to sea surface temperatures in tropical pockets of the Atlantic and the strength of a wind pattern over Africa, known as the African east jet.
The experts of this company considered that in 2022, despite the presence of the La Niña event, the cyclonic season was moderate to strong, since the Atlantic did not generate named storms in August, but three hurricanes did travel through the basin in November.
In that year, the total number of named storms was 14, an average figure and much lower than that of the prolific 2020 and 2021 seasons.
AccuWeather provides commercial weather forecasting services around the world. It was founded in 1962 by Joel N. Myers, a Pennsylvania State University student majoring in meteorology.
The company adopted the name AccuWeather in 1971 and is headquartered in State College, Pennsylvania, although it has offices in Rockefeller Center in New York and Fort Washington, Pennsylvania. In 2006, AccuWeather acquired WeatherData, Inc. of Wichita, Kansas.
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