Former President of the United States Donald Trump, current Republican candidate for the elections, receives 68% of likely Cuban-American voters in Miami-Dade, representing "a historic high," according to a survey from Florida International University (FIU).
This study was conducted by phone with 1,001 Cuban Americans (only potential voters) in Miami-Dade County between September 25 and October 9. Another relevant finding is that 23% of Cuban Americans residing in Miami-Dade intend to vote on November 5 for the vice president and Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris; while 5% are undecided.
What concerns Trump records the highest approval rate between 2017-2021 among that sector of Cubans, according to this pollster from FIU, which has been tracking the evolution of this community since 1991.
In 2016, business approval reached 35%, while in 2020 the number grew to 59%, indicating an increase in what the academic Guillermo Grenier has identified as "Trump's train continues to pick up passengers on Calle Ocho."
The survey also revealed that Republicans continue to be a majority among registered Cuban-American voters (55%), but those born outside of Cuba are divided in their affiliation: 38% are registered Republicans, 33% are Democrats, and 26% are independents (no party affiliation).
Among the noted predictions is the support that Republican Senator Rick Scott will receive, at 50%, compared to 19% for his opponent, Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powel, in the Florida Senate elections.
Cuban-Americans with Republican or Democratic leanings differ in their perception of the central issues facing the country.
For Republican supporters, the main interests revolve around the economy, followed by immigration, access to healthcare, relations with China, Russia, and Cuba, in that order. Finally, access to firearms and reproductive health services.
Meanwhile, supporters of the Democratic Party are focusing on healthcare as a priority, followed by access to safe abortion services, the economy, and the accessibility of assault weapons.
Racial relations, immigration, relations with Russia, Cuba, and China continue to affect him.
The United States embargo against Cuba was another of the topics covered by the survey, and the results showed that 55% of Cuban-Americans in South Florida support its continuation, although they also show relatively high support for some rapprochement policies such as the sale of food (61% support) and medicine (69%) to the island.
Cuban-Americans not born on the island have a 43% support for the continuation of the embargo.
A recent survey by the Mason-Dixon firm published in early October found that Cubans tend to support the former U.S. president.
The study, commissioned by Telemundo 51, revealed that 61% of Cuban Americans would vote for Trump in the upcoming elections, while only 28% would support Kamala Harris, with 4% undecided.
These studies undermine the results obtained at the end of August, when a survey conducted by the firm Inquire, commissioned by Republican Commissioner Kevin Cabrera, showed a tie between the Democratic candidate and the Republican in Miami-Dade County.
On that occasion, the result showed that both candidates had a 47% voting intention in the most populated county in Florida, a traditional stronghold of the Democratic Party.
The sample of this survey was conducted among 500 people from August 22 to 25, close to the conclusion of the Democratic Convention in Chicago, and had a margin of error of 4.5%.
In the 2020 elections, Trump won the state of Florida with 51.2% of the votes, compared to 47.9% for Joe Biden.
However, in Miami-Dade, the current official received the majority of the votes, with 54% of the ballots in his favor.
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