This Monday, the dollar starts with a new price drop in the Cuban informal market, completing a streak of 19 consecutive days of an unprecedented decline.
Although it moderates its fall, the US dollar drops by two units and is quoted today at 280 CUP, according to the value recorded at 7 a.m. (local Cuban time) on June 3rd.
It remains remarkable the rapid pace at which currencies have dropped in the last two weeks, in some cases falling by 10 to 20 pesos in a single day.
The dollar drops 115 pesos today in 19 days, confirming an unprecedented speed of decline since El Toque began documenting price fluctuations in the informal sale of currencies on the island.
The euro remains today at 295 CUP, the price it reached the day before.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) also maintains its value and remains pegged at 260 CUP.
Exchange rate today 03/06/2024 - 7:46 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 280 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 295 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 260 CUP.
Alternative exchange rate from other platforms:
Dollar exchange rate (USD): Buying 276 CUP, Selling 286 CUP.
Exchange rate of the Euro (EUR): Buying 288 CUP, Selling 296 CUP.
MLC exchange rate: Buying 253 CUP, Selling 258 CUP.
The unofficial exchange rate of Cuba offered here is not officially recognized or endorsed by any financial or governmental entity.
Although many Cubans consider positive the fall of the informal exchange rate in Cuba, they wonder why consumer goods prices are not contracting at the same pace.
Meanwhile, those who are fortunate enough to have access to the reference currencies in the country recommend waiting and not selling because they believe that in the long run the value of the euro, the dollar, and the MLC will rise again.
The Cuban government has not made any statement since mid-May when the price of foreign currencies started to decrease in the informal market.
Equivalences of each available euro and US dollar bill to Cuban pesos (CUP)
United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates for this Monday, June 3rd.
1 USD = 280 CUP.
5 USD = 1,400 CUP.
10 USD = 2,800 CUP.
20 USD = 5,600 CUP.
50 USD = 14,000 CUP.
100 USD = 28,000 CUP.
Euro (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 295.
5 EUR = 1,475 CUP.
10 EUR = 2,950 CUP.
20 EUR = 5,900 CUP.
50 EUR = 14,750 CUP.
100 EUR = 29,500 CUP.
This information can be useful for calculating the cost in Cuban pesos of any amount of dollars or euros. These conversions are based on the provided rates of 280 CUP per dollar and 295 CUP per euro.
Without a parachute: Currencies experience a vertiginous descent in Cuba
In recent times, elToque, which since 2019 has been documenting the ups and downs of the price of reference currencies in Cuba in the informal market, issued its opinion on the sharp decline in the value of dollars, euros, and MLC.
"The announcement of the reestablishment of remittance services to the island through Western Union (on May 9) and the proximity to a fixed value (400 CUP x 1 USD) could have influenced expectations, the so-called 'market sentiment'," noted economist Pavel Vidal Alejandro in an extensive article on the subject.
The economist pointed out that a "new balance has been formed in the consensus and in the attitude of market participants."
That is to say, "an increasing number of people began to consider that the price of currencies was excessively high and chose to sell before a possible fall," which triggered the supply.
Vidal Alejandro stated that since mid-May - coinciding with the beginning of the decline of the three reference currencies - there has been a significant increase in the supply of foreign currency in the sample monitored in virtual spaces.
On the other hand, the aforementioned media pointed out that it is natural for "temporary corrections to occur after an extended bullish period in the market."
He explained that since 2022, there have been six pronounced and consecutive falls in the values of currencies, which have lasted in some cases for weeks, but then have recovered.
Is the Cuban peso really appreciating?
Vidal Alejandro considered that the fundamental factors explaining the internal and external imbalances of the Cuban economy have not changed, and therefore "the current inflection of the rate should not be associated with a change in trend."
During the past four years, the value of the Cuban peso has shown a consistent tendency towards depreciation, which is in line with the high fiscal deficit, excessive issuance of Cuban pesos, contraction of domestic production and exports, increasing dependence on imported products and supplies, dollarization, emigration, and widespread and persistent inflation in the markets. In other words, the crisis persists, and there is no reason for the peso to change its devaluation trend.
And there's more, the growth of tourism has slowed down, exports of goods fell below expectations, and the sugar harvest still fails to achieve production stabilization. As if that weren't enough, as of the end of February this year, the State budget imbalance accumulated more than 20,000 million pesos.
On the other hand, Cuban economist Emilio Morales stated this week in an interview with CiberCuba that it is "impossible" for the Cuban peso to have appreciated on its own, gaining ground against the dollar as has happened in recent days, attributing the drop in the informal price of currencies to maneuvers by cyber brigades from the UCI (University of Computer Sciences) on the island.
According to Morales, the only news that can revalue the currency on its own is "that the Government has fallen," because it would finally open up hope for a change in the system.
Morales also ruled out that the decrease in the price of dollars, euros, and MLC in Cuba is due to a supposed infusion of foreign currency into the informal market.
Where are they going to get the foreign currency if they have power outages every day because they don't have money to buy oil? It would have to be a multimillion-dollar injection, and they don't have it," he questioned.
In response to the question of whether there can be any mechanism other than the intervention of the clarias to control inflation this week, the economist responded emphatically.
That is a lie. Cuba does not produce. Where is the productive support for that to happen? Probably that will recover its course and exceed the barrier of 400 pesos," he asserted.
What do you think?
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