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Meteorologists from Colorado State University (CSU), pioneers in seasonal hurricane forecasting, have updated their outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and confirmed that it will be "extremely active," with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
These figures far exceed the average of the past 30 years, which is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes of category 3 or higher in the Atlantic, according to the 44-page report.
Just like its initial forecast from April, this is the most aggressive prediction in the 41-year history of the CSU forecasts and aligns with the annual report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at the end of May.
Current forecasts follow a month of record sea surface temperatures in the tropical waters of the Atlantic. Researchers highlight the seasonally warm water temperatures in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic as strong predictors of activity during the hurricane season.
They also highlight the influence of the La Niña phenomenon for the fall: "The waters of the eastern Pacific around the equator continue to cool rapidly, suggesting a transition to La Niña conditions for the autumn," the publication states.
Government scientists predict the onset of La Niña between July and September, coinciding with the peak months of the hurricane season. They explain that when this phenomenon develops in the eastern Pacific, it reduces wind shear in the Atlantic, particularly near land areas, thereby increasing the likelihood of Atlantic hurricanes making landfall.
As a result, experts have warned that any precaution is not enough, as a devastating hurricane is needed to cause a bad season.
So far, the hurricane season in the Atlantic has had a quiet start, but this is not expected to last long.
Florida, a region highly susceptible to cyclones, has implemented tax holidays in preparation for disasters, offering the chance to purchase preparedness items, such as generators and other equipment, tax-free. The opportunity to acquire these tax-exempt products ends this Friday.
This Tuesday, southern Florida is experiencing heavy rain, with slow-moving tropical downpours expected throughout the week, raising the risk of flash flooding.
The entire southern part of the state is under a flood watch until at least Wednesday night, and this watch is likely to be extended.
The forecasts issued by CSU during hurricane season have historically shown considerable accuracy and higher skill scores than preseason predictions, so the university's report should not be overlooked.
Rick Spinrad, the administrator of NOAA, also emphasized in a press conference at the end of May that the current forecasts are the highest the agency has ever issued in its regular report for the fifth month of the year. Typically, there are between seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, with maximum sustained winds of 178 km/h or higher.
Similarly, experts in Cuba agreed with these forecasts. Specialists from the Climate Center and the Forecast Center of the island's Institute of Meteorology reported that the 2024 hurricane season will be very active across the entire North Atlantic basin, which also includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
"Cubans said that 20 tropical cyclones are forecasted to form in the entire North Atlantic basin, of which 11 could reach hurricane status."
Despite these predictions, meteorologists warn that preparedness for hurricane season is crucial, as it only takes one hurricane to cause major devastation.
The Secretary of Homeland Security, Alejandro Mayorkas, urged communities to take action to prepare for hurricane season, recalling the devastation that these storms can cause.
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