The most active period of the current hurricane season began on August 20 and will last for approximately six weeks.
Puerto Rican meteorologist Rubén García explained on Facebook that this stage is considered the peak of the current season.
"According to historical data, and on average, 85% of the cyclonic activity during a hurricane season occurs after this date," the expert noted.
Although the most active period, which lasts six weeks, has just begun, the meteorologist pointed out that calm conditions are expected in the Atlantic over the next seven to ten days.
"The models indicate that cyclonic activity may increase significantly starting from the last week of August," he noted.
In another post, García explained that the University of Colorado published its forecast for cyclonic activity over the next two weeks, anticipating activity within normal levels, although they emphasize that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 is expected to be extremely active.
Although no tropical cyclone development is expected in the next seven days, conditions are anticipated to become more favorable by the end of August, as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to be situated over the Indian Ocean, which will enhance hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Finally, he emphasized that the forecast remains unchanged, predicting 23 tropical storms and 12 hurricanes, of which six could reach major hurricane status.
However, Dr. Miriam Teresita Llanes Monteagudo, head of the Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba, pointed out that the 2024 hurricane season is expected to be very active in the North Atlantic basin, which also includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, as reported by the official outlet Cubadebate.
In this regard, it was noted that for the remainder of the season, the formation of 15 tropical storms is expected in the entire geographical area, nine of which could reach hurricane status.
He explained to the news portal that out of the total number of tropical storms, 12 are expected to develop in the oceanic area of the Atlantic and three in the Caribbean Sea. He noted that there is a very high likelihood of at least one hurricane forming and intensifying in the Caribbean (85%), as well as a 70% chance that one originating from the Atlantic will enter the Caribbean.
The probability that Cuba will be affected by at least one hurricane is 80%, and in the event that it is impacted by at least one tropical storm, the probability rises to 90%, according to Dr. Llanes.
In June, meteorologists from Colorado State University predicted that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would be “extremely active,” with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
These figures far exceed the average over the past 30 years, which is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes of category 3 or higher in the Atlantic.
In May, the Cuban institution predicted the formation of 20 tropical cyclones throughout the North Atlantic basin, of which 11 could reach hurricane status.
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