Five disturbances with low probabilities before the cyclone peak

A few days before the peak of the hurricane season, the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico show five disturbances that, although with low chances of development, are being closely monitored by the National Hurricane Center of the United States (NHC).

In the northwest Gulf of Mexico, a low-pressure trough is generating disorganized rains and thunderstorms near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas, although winds at upper levels are expected to hinder its development in the coming days due to the approach of a front; cyclonic development is unlikely, the NHC warned.

However, the entity warned that intense rain is expected in parts of the northern Gulf coast, with a 10% chance of formation over the next 48 hours and the next seven days.

On the other hand, in the Northwestern Atlantic, an area of non-tropical low pressure located east of North Carolina is causing disorganized rain and thunderstorms.

According to NHC, there is a possibility that this system will acquire subtropical characteristics in the coming days as it moves north-northeast, although no significant development is expected after Saturday. The probability of formation in 48 hours is 20%, and remains at 20% in seven days.

In the eastern tropical Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure is generating disorganized storm activity. This system could slowly develop while moving northwest or north in the coming days, with a 10% chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance in the next seven days.

In the northwest of the Caribbean Sea and the southwest of the Gulf of Mexico, a tropical wave is moving westward, generating light rain and thunderstorms activity.

Although it is unlikely to develop before reaching Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula on Friday, there is a small chance of development once it emerges in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. The probability of formation in 48 hours is almost zero, but it increases to 30% over the next seven days, NHC noted.

Finally, the monitoring center noted a tropical wave in the central Atlantic, east of the Leeward Islands, which is showing minimal rain and thunderstorm activity.

However, strong winds at high levels are limiting its short-term development. Starting next week, conditions could become more favorable for slow development in the southwestern Atlantic. The probability of formation in 48 hours is almost zero, and in seven days it remains low at 10%.

Cuban meteorologist Raydel Ruisanchez warned this Thursday on Facebook that "we are less than a week away from the peak of cyclonic activity and so far everything has been very calm, but this should start to change."

Evidence of this "peak" is that last Tuesday, the NHC alerted that they were monitoring three tropical waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, indicating that they had the potential to become tropical depressions in the Atlantic area, and just a few days later, there are five disturbances that specialists are keeping an eye on.

In August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) adjusted its forecast, confirming that up to 13 cyclones could form.

The new report reflects a slight but significant adjustment in NOAA's forecasts, indicating a range of 17 to 24 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) and between 8 to 13 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater).