The support of the Cuban-American community continues to be a key factor driving Donald Trump's advantage among Hispanic voters in Florida, according to a recent survey by Mason-Dixon.
The study, commissioned by Telemundo 51, revealed that 61% of Cuban Americans would vote for Trump in the upcoming elections, while only 28% would support Kamala Harris, with 4% undecided.
The survey, with a margin of error of +/- 4%, was conducted through telephone interviews with 625 Hispanics registered to vote in Florida.
The results highlight significant differences among the various Hispanic groups.
Among Puerto Ricans, 58% support Harris and 33% support Trump, with 7% undecided.
In the case of Hispanics from other nationalities, 47% would vote for Trump and 41% for Harris, with 6% undecided.
From a geographical standpoint, Harris leads in Central Florida with 45% compared to Trump's 39%, and in the Tampa Bay area with 48% over Trump's 43%.
In Southeast Florida, Trump leads with 53% against Harris's 38%.
The survey also breaks down preferences by gender and age.
The majority of women favor Harris (53%) over Trump (37%), while among men, 60% prefer Trump and only 28% prefer Harris.
As for age, voters under 50 are almost divided: with 44% in favor of Harris and 43% for Trump, but among those over 50, Trump receives 53% support compared to Harris's 37%.
Important issues for Hispanics
The survey also inquired about topics of interest to Hispanics in Florida.
The embargo on Cuba remains a polarizing issue, with 48% against lifting it, 35% in favor, and 17% undecided.
Regarding the humanitarian parole program, 65% support it, while 29% oppose it and 6% are undecided.
Similarly, 73% support an increase in sanctions against the Venezuelan government, with 17% opposed and 10% undecided.
Regarding the issues that most influence voting decisions, the economy is the priority for 41% of the electorate, where Trump has the support of 48% and Harris has 41%.
Other topics mentioned in the survey include democracy, immigration, abortion, and climate change, although with lesser relevance in the voting decision.
The survey was conducted between September 23 and 25, 2024, and all respondents expressed their intention to vote in the general elections in November.
The participants were randomly selected from a database of registered voters in Florida, including landlines and cell phones.
Another survey
A little over a month ago, another survey—conducted by the firm Inquire at the request of Republican Commissioner Kevin Cabrera—revealed, however, a tie between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Miami-Dade County.
In that case, the result showed that both candidates had a 47% intention to vote in Florida's most populated county, Miami-Dade, a traditional stronghold of the Democratic Party.
The survey sample was conducted among 500 people from August 22 to 25, dates close to the conclusion of the Democratic Convention in Chicago, and had a margin of error of 4.5%. The study also reported 6% of undecided voters.
The current vice president Harris was perceived in the county with a more favorable view (49%) than unfavorable (45%). Trump was not far off in the numbers with 48% against 46%.
The state of Florida has established itself as a conservative stronghold, with one million more registered voters as Republicans than as Democrats.
According to data revealed by state election supervisors, there are currently 5.3 million active voters affiliated with the Republican Party, compared to 4.3 million registered as Democrats. Additionally, around 3.9 million voters do not identify with any political party or are affiliated with minor parties.
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