The Cuban government is lying: Analysis reveals the truth about the "great march."

500,000 demonstrators? The images tell a different story. Find out how the Cuban government inflated the numbers of the "great march" on December 20


On December 20th, the Cuban government organized a demonstration in Havana led by Miguel Díaz-Canel and Raúl Castro, which official media and government agents reported as having more than 500,000 attendees. However, an objective analysis of the available images and technical data about the gathering contradicts these figures.

What do the images show?

The march, held along the Havana seawall, began in front of the Anti-Imperialist Tribune. Using Google Maps, we calculated the approximate area occupied by the participants. This calculation was made before the march started, based on measurements of the area taken up by the demonstrators from the Tribune to 23rd Street.

Aerial view of the demonstration

The images of the demonstration allow us to estimate an area occupied by the participants of approximately 12,230 square meters.

Area occupied by the demonstrators before the march began

Realistically speaking, we can say that about 30,000 people participated in the demonstration

It is possible to determine how many people actually attended by considering different levels of density. For a "normal" gathering of people, the estimate is between 2 and 3 people per square meter, while for a high density estimate, it is around 4 people per square meter. By using the area and the estimated density, we can say that:

Normal density (2.5 people per m²): 30,575 people.

2.5 people per square meter in an area of 4 square meters = 10 people

High density (4 people per m²): 48,920 people.

4 people per m2 in an area of 4 m2 = 16 people

Even being generous (overlooking the large Cuban flag that took up a significant area) and considering the high density throughout the area, the actual attendance did not exceed 50,000 people. Realistically, we can say that around 30,000 people participated in the demonstration, which clearly shows that the government is shamelessly lying about the scale of the event. This is far from the 500,000 participants claimed by the government. They have multiplied the actual attendance by more than ten times.

How are the numbers inflated?

The regime has once again demonstrated its dishonesty by manipulating figures to create a false perception of popular support. The inflated numbers were disseminated by state-run television, regime-affiliated media outlets, as well as on social media by regime spokespersons and official government accounts.

Posts on social media X with false participation data.

The images reveal empty spaces and a low density of participants that directly contradict the inflated reports from the Government. While state media described the march as a massive demonstration against the U.S. blockade, the reality is that the official figures are not just inaccurate, but blatantly false. This attempt to mislead the public underestimates the intelligence of the Cuban people, who are well aware of the lack of genuine support for the Government.

The importance of objective data

The truth is that the Cuban people are tired of the same old slogans. Inflated figures do not fool those who live the reality of the country: a deep economic crisis, widespread discontent, and massive emigration. These kinds of directed and controlled demonstrations are a facade that fails to hide the disconnect between the government and the population.

In today's world, where everything is increasingly public and tools exist to debunk falsehoods, it is very easy to expose these manipulations by providing an analysis grounded in facts, not propaganda. The truth deserves to be heard.

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Luis Flores

CEO and co-founder of CiberCuba.com. When I have time, I write opinion pieces about the Cuban reality from the perspective of an emigrant.

Luis Flores

Luis Flores

CEO and co-founder of CiberCuba.com. When I have time, I write opinion pieces about Cuban reality from the perspective of an emigrant.