The dollar and euro woke up this Friday with a new record sales figure in the informal market in Cuba, which confirms that at the moment the currencies show no sign of stopping their escalation.
The average sale of the dollar reaches 298 pesos per unit and is dangerously close to 300 CUP, as revealed by the daily rate of the independent mediaelToque, which records the oscillations in the informal price of currencies in the country.
In the case of the euro, The European currency exceeds the threshold of 300 and stands at 302, adding uptwo pesos in relation to the previous day.
Dollar and euro are now only five pesos apart.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) remains unchanged, currently anchored at 260 CUP.
What is the ceiling of the informal price of currencies in Cuba?
A recentanalysis ofelToque Regarding the movement of currencies in the informal market, he pointed out that the coup de grace of the Cuban peso was the announcement at the beginning of 2024 of increases in fuel prices and public transportation rates.
Although the measures did not materialize due to a computer failure in the FINCIMEX marketing system, the truth is that the announcement had an immediate impact on the foreign exchange market.
"The anticipation of the implementation of the measures caused an increase in the demand for foreign currencies; which, given the limited supply available, led to an accelerated depreciation of the Cuban peso", details the aforementioned medium.
Added to this is a "context of high uncertainty and economic instability, without specific government projections, which leads to the persistence of the conditions that drive the demand for foreign currency and the supply remaining restricted."
Pavel Vidal, Cuban economist and principal researcher at OMFi, assures thatSince the end of December 2023, an increase in the demand for currencies above the supply has been noted in the data monitored on classifieds websites.
"There has been an increase in volatility in the informal foreign exchange market, which reflects uncertainties in relation to new regulations and policies for tariffs, taxes, prices and MSMEs," he explains.
However, the economist warns that in the virtual spaces that monitorDemand from buyers willing to buy the currency at the current price begins to fall, something that could end up slowing the increase in the price of the reference currencies.
"The above may lead to a slowdown in the depreciation of the peso when it crosses the 300 mark, an event targeted by the central scenario of the OMFi forecast models for February," he concludes.
Meanwhile, many on the street agree that the increase in the price of currencies in the informal market is ultimately not good for anyone becauseIt is as if inflation had no limits.
Will currencies continue to rise?
The median of values registered in the last 24 hours marks purchase offers for the euro at 300 CUPand for sale at 305 pesos, which could anticipate that it will rise in the next few hours.
The dollar, for its part, registers an average of 296 pesos in the purchase and300 on sale, another indication of imminent increase in value.
In the case of the MLC, the median is 260 in both acquisition and purchase.
The new record sales figures in the informal euro and dollar market take place in the midst of a critical economic context, marked by thedismissal of Alejandro Gil as minister of economy.
Previously, the government also announced thedelay in fuel price hike after an alleged cyberattack on the CIMEX marketing system. These decisions were preceded, in turn, by the announcement that the government prepares to the intervention of the informal currency market in February.
Despite a temporary drop in its buy and sell values at the end of December 2023,In a period of just a few days, the three currencies not only recovered their previous values, but have also maintained a sustained rise to record prices., something that is very worrying for those who do not have access to these currencies on the island.
The reference rate of the aforementioned independent media is prepared after analyzing the purchase and sale advertisements of the three reference currencies published on social networks and classified websites. From this result, a price is established that is used to know the values of the main currencies that circulate in the country.
Nevertheless,elToque clarifies that its representative rate is formed from purchase or sale announcements, that is, that They are not concrete operations, but rather they express the desire of the actors who participate in that market.That's why they insist that the shared figures be taken only as a "reference".
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