Cuba is undergoing a significant demographic transformation, characterized by a rapidly aging population, caused -among other factors- by a decline in births and an increasing wave of emigration.
The outlook appears so bleak that by the end of 2023, 24.4% of Cubans were 60 years old or older, according to data presented by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) in the report "The Aging of the Population. Cuba and Its Territories 2023."
As it is no secret, the figure clearly reflects two realities: the impact of a persistent low birth rate and an increasing migration of economically active individuals.
The ONEI document clearly indicates a 9.7 percentage point increase in the population aged 60 and older over the last two decades. This has significantly altered the country's demographic structure.
According to the EFE agency, based on research statistics, between 2021 and 2023, the number of Cubans aged 60 and over increased by 3%, while the population aged 15 to 59 decreased by nearly 12%.
In addition, the population under 15 years of age also decreased by 6%, and all these changes have affected the Demographic Dependency Ratio (DDR), which measures the proportion of people in dependent age groups (under 15 and over 60) in relation to the working-age population.
This ratio increased from 606 dependents per thousand active individuals in 2021 to 681 in 2023, which adds pressure to the country's economy and social services. In other words, there are more expenses for a state in crisis that already has a high monetary demand due to subsidies.
Indeed, the situation is worsening amidst an economic crisis and unprecedented emigration, leading to a dramatic decrease in the population on the island.
As of 2023, the deputy head of ONEI, Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, noted that the "effective population" of the country had fallen below 10 million, a concerning decrease from 11 million in 2021.
Independent experts, such as demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, argue that the actual figure could be even lower, estimating a population of 8.62 million, as stated by the mentioned agency.
Despite these figures, Alfonso Fraga has urged not to "dramatize" the aging population, asserting that the decline in birth rates "is not a minor issue," but emphasizing that the country must adapt and work with this reality to develop.
Cuba's demographic future poses complex challenges for its economic development, with a growing number of elderly individuals requiring a robust support system and a potential need for reforms to counteract the decline of the young workforce.
Meanwhile, the majority of Cubans, faced with a myriad of growing needs over time, prefer to leave the country in search of opportunities—which are not new, as few currently have them—and better living conditions.
What do you think?
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