The value of the euro in the Cuban informal market shot up this Thursday to 278 CUP, a figure that represents a sudden increase of three pesos in relation to the 275 in which it had been sold on average in the last nine days.
The European currency sets a new sales record and is thus approaching the threshold of 280 pesos, which many wonder if it will end up surpassing before the end of the year.
Its value also increases the freely convertible currency (MLC), which goes from 248 to 249, one more peso in relation to its value in recent days.
Regarding the dollar, this December 14 for the sixth consecutive day it is sold on average at 270 CUP, according to the independent media elToque in the daily rate reported by the exchange rate in the informal market in Cuba.
In the median values of the last 24 hours, average purchase offers for the euro at 276 pesos and 278 for sale.
In the case of the MLC, the median marks 248 in the purchase and 250 on sale, which could be an indication that the freely convertible currency will continue to rise imminently.
The dollar remains unchanged at 275 CUP both in acquisition and sale.
The informal exchange market governs a large part of the lives of citizens residing on the island, who remain suffocated by inflation, shortages and the unstoppable economic crisis. The rise in the price of reference currencies in the informal market benefits those who carry out such transactions at the street level with a view to satisfying the growing needs of daily life.
How much more can the Cuban peso depreciate?
An article published by elToque This Wednesday he analyzed the exchange rate swings of recent months. So far in 2023, the Cuban peso has accumulated a depreciation of close to 50% against the dollar and the euro in the unofficial foreign exchange market.
However, looking ahead to the coming months, he anticipated that, although "the macroeconomic factors that support the devaluation of the Cuban peso will continue, "It is likely that the pace or speed of depreciation will tend to moderate during 2024."
"It is likely that after the strong acceleration of 2022 and 2023, the informal currency market will enter a more stable dynamic in the coming years, with slight depreciations and oscillations in both directions, while the Cuban economy tries to implement reforms that correct the severe imbalances," concluded the aforementioned source.
An article published in November in the official newspaper Granma described the value of the dollar in the informal market as "fictitious"".
The Venezuelan economist Pasqualina Curcio asserted that the currency buying and selling movements in the informal market do not reflect the economic reality of Cuba, and estimated that it is a "political and economic manipulation of external forces, designed to destabilize governments not aligned with US foreign policy."
A subsequent article published by the independent media elToque He described this statement as "misleading" for simplifying the phenomenon.
"The emergence of the informal currency market and the evolution of the value of the Cuban peso against foreign currencies are a reflection of the economic crisis in Cuba and government decisions. The crisis has multiple roots, including past and current policies," said Glenda Boza Ibarra.
"In the context of a deep economic crisis, characterized mainly by an acute shortage of foreign exchange in the economy as a whole, "The inevitable outcome is the depreciation of the national currency.", added the aforementioned source.
Economist Ricardo Torres, for his part, described it as a "serious error in economic policy" to consider illegal transactions that reflect the supply and demand of foreign currency, and indicated that the same authorities could begin by creating mechanisms to regularize that market.
The reference rate of elToque -which makes the Cuban regime so uncomfortable- It is prepared after analyzing all the purchase and sale advertisements published on social networks and classified websites. From this result, a price is established that is used to know the values of the main currencies that circulate in the country.
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