The seasonal forecast issued by specialists from the Climate Center and the Forecast Center of the Cuban Meteorological Institute predicts that the 2024 hurricane season will be very active throughout the entire North Atlantic basin, which also includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
It is forecasted the formation of 20 tropical cyclones throughout the North Atlantic basin, of which 11 could reach hurricane status.
Of the total tropical cyclones, 14 could develop in the Atlantic Ocean area, four in the Caribbean Sea, and another two in the Gulf of Mexico.
The chances of at least one hurricane forming and intensifying in the Caribbean are very high (85%), while the probability of an Atlantic-origin hurricane entering the Caribbean is 70%.
The risk of Cuba being affected by at least one hurricane is an 80% probability.
Even greater is the danger for Cuba of being affected by at least one tropical cyclone, with a probability of 90%.
The fundamental oceanic and atmospheric conditions that regulate tropical cyclonic activity over the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea will be favorable for a very active hurricane season.
The official information stated that "the sea surface temperature in the tropical strip of the North Atlantic has shown high values from June 2023 to April 2024. Models indicate that this warming could persist during the hurricane season and have a favorable influence on the formation and development of tropical cyclones."
Another important factor to consider for the forecast of the cyclone season is that the current El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event has started to weaken.
Most models predict that the current ENOS could end in May, with neutral conditions prevailing thereafter.
There is a high probability that a La Niña - Southern Oscillation event (AENOS) will develop in the coming months, which would also result in a very active hurricane season.
Like every year, the hurricane season will begin on June 1st and will last until November 30th. Between 1991 and 2020, the historical average annual emergence of tropical cyclonic systems is 14. An update of the forecast, announced today by the Meteorology Institute, which has been issued since 1996, will be made on August 1st.
It is opportune to remember that for the series of years between 1991 and 2020, the historical annual average of emergence of tropical cyclonic systems is fourteen.
According to Dr. Perez Suarez, the chances of at least one hurricane forming and intensifying in the Caribbean are very high at 85 percent, while it is 70 percent for the case of an Atlantic-origin hurricane entering the Caribbean Sea.
He specified that the risk of Cuba being affected by at least one hurricane is very high, with an 80 percent probability. As for the possibility of impact on the largest of the Antilles by at least one tropical cyclone, the figure rises to 90 percent.
Consulted on the subject, the researcher from the Climate Center pointed out that "the oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea will be very favorable for the development of cyclonic activity, taking into account the very high values of sea surface temperature (from June 2023 to April 2024, records have been broken every month for the period 1951-2024) and the observed weakening of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, which should end in May to subsequently establish neutral conditions."
In addition to this, there is a high probability that a new La Niña/Southern Oscillation event (AENOS) will emerge and enter full development starting in July or August.
Consisting of an anomalous cooling of ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Niña usually causes a decrease in the so-called vertical wind shear at high altitudes in the Atlantic basin, a key factor for the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones.
An update of this forecast, issued by the Meteorology Institute since 1996, will be made on August first.
What do you think?
COMMENTFiled under: