Who is Claudia Sheinbaum and what is the position towards Cuba of the winner of the Mexican elections?

Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, 61 years old and originally from Mexico City, was elected as the first female president of Mexico in an election marked by high turnout and a resounding victory for the ruling party, Morena.

Sheinbaum Pardo, a university activist in her youth, a Ph.D. in Physics, and the head of government of the capital before running for the presidency, obtained between 58.6% and 60.7% of the votes cast.

Although the figures are preliminary, the quick count indicates that the outcome surpasses the 53% achieved by its predecessor and political mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), in 2018.

The high number of voters reflects the mobilization of an electorate marked by strong polarization in the country. Sheinbaum, successor of the populist López Obrador, capitalized on the support of the outgoing president, even though she herself lacks the same level of political charisma.

Despite the euphoria generated by the election of the first female president in 200 years of independence, it is important to analyze the context and implications of this result. Sheinbaum's victory highlights the lack of viable alternatives and the weakness of the opposition, represented by Xóchitl Gálvez, who obtained between 26% and 28% of the votes.

Although the emergence of Morena represented a novelty in the Mexican political landscape, the mandate of AMLO and the "continuity" of Sheinbaum are beginning to be perceived by some analysts as a return to the times of absolute control by the PRI.

The election, which took place in an atmosphere of violence (with 37 candidates assassinated during the campaign), underscores the serious security problems that persist in the country, exacerbated by even greater territorial control by drug mafias and cartels.

Furthermore, the centralization of power in Morena raises concerns about the balance of powers and the future of democracy in Mexico.

Sheinbaum has promised to govern for all citizens, but her ability to address economic and security challenges, without resorting to populism and without relying on López Obrador's legacy, remains to be seen. The new president will have to demonstrate that she can implement effective and sustainable policies instead of just following her predecessor's rhetoric.

Foreign investment and remittances have increased in Mexico, but inequality and violence continue to be significant barriers to development. Sheinbaum will have to deal with these realities while trying to consolidate her leadership and prevent her administration from being seen as a mere continuation of López Obrador's mandate.

What is the stance of the future Mexican president regarding the Cuban regime?

In the last televised debate among the candidates for the presidency of Mexico, focused on foreign policy issues, Sheinbaum stated that "submissiveness in foreign policy is over" and referred to episodes from previous PAN administrations to exemplify AMLO's "rescue" of Mexican sovereignty.

In that sense, he quoted the phrase that Vicente Fox said in a private conversation to the dictator Fidel Castro prior to the celebration of the International Conference on Financing for Development held in Monterrey on March 22, 2002, according to Telediario.

"Come and go," Fox proposed in a call that Fidel Castro himself leaked, revealing the concern of the host and Mexican president to avoid a problematic encounter between the dictator and the U.S. President George W. Bush. Although the phrase is not exact, it remained framed as an image of Fox's supposed submission to the United States.

AMLO's foreign policy is a source of pride, it is a badge of pride. "We received vaccines during the pandemic," said Sheinbaum Pardo during the debate. She was precisely the one in charge - as governor of Mexico City - of denying the accusation of fraud in the hiring of 585 Cuban doctors without academic qualifications to address the emergency situation caused by COVID-19 at the end of 2020 in her country.

"There is absolutely nothing to hide, they were different healthcare professionals who came to Mexico to help, there were two periods in which they were, mainly in Mexico City, although also in other states and we can gladly provide all the information, I think the Ministry of Health already did it, how many doctors, specialist nurses, were incorporated to save lives in our city," stated the then Head of Government of Mexico City.

Accusing the right of looking for "where there is absolutely nothing," in order to show "some issue related to this solidarity that we receive from Cuban doctors," Sheinbaum acknowledged that her government paid for that solidarity.

"Of course they were paid, this solidarity was not free, the doctors were paid, just like Mexican doctors were paid, and an entirely official agreement was made," the official stated.

In the shadow of AMLO, the winner of the elections and future president of Mexico has seen the ties between the National Palace of Mexico and the Palace of the Revolution of the Cuban regime tighten.

Hiring of doctors, purchase of vaccines developed in Cuba, agreements on migration issues, statements in favor of lifting the US embargo, and supply of oil at preferential prices have shaped the political alignment between AMLO and the Cuban regime.

During this period of rapprochement, Mexico became the second crude oil supplier to Cuba, behind Venezuela. The United States has demanded clarity from its Mexican partners regarding Havana's payments for some shipments that López Obrador described as donations, contrary to the explanations provided by the president of PEMEX (the state-owned company Petróleos Mexicanos).

Obviously we need to strengthen the relationship with the United States and Canada, we have a Free Trade Agreement, today we are the main trading partners with the United States. There are already dialogues of high understanding in economic matters, in migration matters, in security matters, and we will maintain those dialogues," Sheinbaum said in the debate before the elections.

Time will tell if Mexico's first female president will maintain the special relationship built with Havana by her predecessor, or if she will surprise and distance herself from a regime that denies rights and freedoms to Cubans, including the right to choose their governing leaders freely and democratically.