Cuba's population will fall below six million by 2100, according to UN estimates.

Cuba's demographic prospects are not at all promising from now until 2100, according to a study presented by the United Nations (UN).

Through a review of the World Population Prospects, in its twenty-eighth edition, the United Nations presents population estimates from 1950 to the present for 237 countries or areas, supported by an analysis of historical demographic trends.

In their analysis, they take into account the results of 1,910 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2023, as well as information from civil registration systems and 3,189 nationally representative sampling surveys.

In the case of the 2024 revision, it also presents population projections up to the year 2100 that reflect a series of plausible results at the global, regional, and national levels.

Specifically in Cuba, forecasts show a population decline of more than six million inhabitants on the island.

The graph presented by the UN shows how, compared to 2022, the projection of the Cuban population for 2100 is below 6 million inhabitants. In 2022, it was a little closer to seven million.

This alert is not new for Cubans. In 2016, a study carried out by the institution Foresight Cuba (based on the homonymous research methodology), with support from data from the UN, the ONEI, CEDEM, Barros, and CEPAL, showed the evolution of the number of births, deaths, as well as the migratory balance on the Caribbean island and how this affects population growth.

According to the report, after the demographic boom in the 1960s, birth rates have been decreasing since reaching a peak in 1965. Mortality rates have been increasing since 1960, and the migration balance shows crises after periods of restrictions on leaving the country.

Today, Cuba is the most aged country in Latin America, and in 2050 it will be one of the 10 most aged countries in the world. Birth rate projections do not foresee an increase above the replacement level, as the group of people aged 60 and over is greater than the group aged 14 and under. The number of deaths will exceed the number of births within the next three years, and it is expected that Cuba will lose up to 2.2 million inhabitants by 2050.

According to an independent demographic study, ready for publication and accessed by the Efe agency, the Cuban population plummeted by 18% between 2022 and 2023, reaching 8.62 million people.

The study, conducted by the Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, seeks to quantify the consequences of the significant exodus experienced by the country since 2021 and fill the resulting gap caused by the lack of official statistics regarding demographic changes.

The calculation is based on the figures of Cubans who have arrived in the United States between October 2021 and April 2024, totaling 738,680 people, according to official information released by US authorities that includes visas, paroles, and irregular arrivals.

Cuba has not conducted a population census in twelve years, and the Cuban Government has postponed the population census, scheduled to take place in 2022, until 2025, citing that the current economic situation does not allow for the task to be carried out.