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The demographic outlook for Cuba is not optimistic from now until 2100, according to a study presented by the United Nations (UN).
Through a review of the World Population Prospects in its twenty-eighth edition, the United Nations presents population estimates from 1950 to the present for 237 countries or regions, supported by analyses of historical demographic trends.
Their analysis takes into account the results from 1,910 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2023, as well as information from civil registry systems and 3,189 representative national sampling surveys.
In the case of the 2024 review, it also presents population projections up to the year 2100, reflecting a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional, and national levels.
Specifically in Cuba, forecasts indicate a decline in the population of more than six million inhabitants on the island.
The graph presented by the UN shows that, in comparison to 2022, the projection for the Cuban population in 2100 is below 6 million inhabitants. In 2022, it was slightly closer to 7 million.
This alert is not new for Cubans. In 2016, a study conducted by the institution Foresight Cuba (based on the methodology of the same name) supported by data from the UN, ONEI, CEDEM, Barros, and CEPAL, revealed the evolution of the number of births and deaths, as well as the migration balance on the Caribbean island and how these factors impact population growth.
According to the report, after the demographic boom in the 1960s, birth rates have been declining since reaching a peak in 1965. Mortality rates have been increasing since 1960, and net migration shows crises following periods of restrictions on leaving the country.
Today, Cuba is the most aging country in Latin America, and by 2050, it will be one of the ten oldest countries in the world. Projections for the birth rate do not foresee any increase above replacement level; the population of individuals aged 60 and older already exceeds that of those aged 14 and younger. The number of deaths is expected to surpass the number of births within the next three years, and it is anticipated that Cuba could lose up to 2.2 million residents by 2050.
According to an independent demographic study set for publication and accessed by the Efe agency, the Cuban population plummeted by 18% between 2022 and 2023, reaching a total of 8.62 million people.
The study, conducted by Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, aims to quantify the consequences of the significant exodus the country has experienced since 2021 and to address the resulting gap due to the lack of official statistics regarding demographic fluctuations.
The calculation is based on the figures of Cubans who have arrived in the United States between October 2021 and April 2024, totaling 738,680 people, according to official information released by U.S. authorities that combines visas, paroles, and irregular arrivals.
Cuba has not conducted a population census in twelve years, and the Cuban government has postponed the census, originally scheduled for 2022, until 2025, citing that the current economic situation does not allow for the task to be carried out.
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