The Cuban government shared official data this Friday showing how the island's population has decreased by more than 10% in the last three years.
The deputy head of the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, acknowledged in the third ordinary session of the National Assembly of People's Power that by the end of 2023, the "effective population" of Cuba stands at 10,055,968 citizens, but in 2024 it is already less than 10 million.
The Cuban government considers "effective population to be all those who, in a calendar year, were born in the country or in another country but reside permanently, accumulated 180 days or more of residence in the same during the last 365 days, and have not passed away."
The data shared in the presentation of the Migration Law project confirms a 10.1% decrease in the country's population compared to the records of December 31, 2020.
The current population level is similar to what Cuba had in 1985. The official did not specify from which year this has been happening, but noted that natural growth in the country is negative, meaning more people are dying than being born, and this phenomenon is not new.
On the other hand, the migratory balance on the island is also negative, as at least 1,011,269 people left the country during the evaluated period.
Cuba has gone twelve years without conducting a population census. The government has been postponing it since 2022, claiming it does not have the resources to carry it out. It is expected that they might be able to do it in 2025, but the conditions are not yet in place.
The demographic data provided by ONEI is scant. In particular, the data on migration issues is unknown to most Cubans, and many experts believe that the state is not transparent about the number of citizens who have left the country since the borders were opened after the pandemic.
Alfonso Fraga pointed out this Friday that in the past six months, population movements have continued; therefore, it is estimated that the number of Cubans residing on the island is less than 10 million, and he warned that the number will continue to decrease.
"This population decline impacts in one direction or another (increasing or decreasing its value) on demographic movement rates and on the total of other per capita indicators in the economic, social, and environmental spheres," said the official.
He warned that the government is obligated to modify its development plans in response to these population indicators that have changed drastically. Among the most aging provinces in Cuba are Villa Clara and Sancti Spíritus.
This trend has significant implications for the Cuban economy and society, affecting everything from the labor market to the provision of social services and the sustainability of the pension system.
In 2024, the Cuban government recorded 34,648 births by July 11, a total of 8,157 fewer than in the same period of 2023. This figure represents a 20% drop in the birth rate, according to the numbers presented by the Ministry of Public Health.
The Cuban government asserts that it is monitoring these demographic indicators and studying policies that could mitigate the effects of this population decline, but so far, these policies are not clearly known.
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