Vice President Kamala Harris managed to surpass former Republican President Donald Trump in Miami-Dade County, according to a new poll recently published by Democratic strategist Christian Ulvert.
Less than three weeks after taking on the role of de facto Democratic presidential candidate, Harris shows a considerable lead over Trump and, according to the poll, would have the backing of 54% of potential voters in the county, outperforming her rival in the upcoming presidential election, who would receive 40% support.
The survey, conducted in early August by MDW Communications, a well-known Democratic consultant based in Plantation, Florida, reflects a significant shift in the local political landscape following Joe Biden's departure from the presidential race, according to the Miami Herald.
With a margin of error of 4.6%, the survey interviewed 1,071 potential voters for the general elections in Miami-Dade, highlighting a growing enthusiasm among Democrats in a state that has been a Republican stronghold in recent years.
This new electoral scenario also highlights the diversity of the electorate in Miami-Dade. According to the cited media, Harris has managed to gain significant support among several key groups. For example, 55% of women and 52% of men surveyed expressed their intention to vote for the vice president.
Furthermore, among Hispanic voters who are not Cuban, Harris has 58% support, compared to the 38% that backs Trump. However, Trump maintains a significant advantage among Cuban Americans, with 61% support compared to the 33% that supports Harris.
Despite this advantage in Miami-Dade, the overall picture in Florida remains complicated for Democrats. Although the poll shows positive signs for Harris, such as the consolidation of voters seeking to move forward rather than backward, recent history suggests that a victory in Miami-Dade does not necessarily translate into a statewide victory. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade by a wide margin but failed to secure the victory in Florida.
The poll also offers optimistic prospects for other Democratic candidates in local contests within Miami-Dade. James Reyes, the Democratic candidate for county sheriff, leads by 10 percentage points over Rosie Cordero-Stutz, the Republican candidate backed by Trump. Moreover, Democrats maintain advantages in the races for court clerk, comptroller, tax collector, and county elections supervisor.
Another noteworthy finding from the survey is the extensive support for Amendment 4, a proposal to ensure access to abortion in the state before fetal viability or if it is medically necessary. 66% of respondents said they plan to vote in favor of the measure, significantly surpassing the 60% threshold needed for its approval in November.
The latest polls conducted for the upcoming November U.S. presidential elections indicate a slight advantage for the Democratic candidate over the Republican.
It is a new scenario following the official designation of Harris as the Democratic candidate. According to the specialized site FiveThirtyEight, it would be the first time that polls give the advantage to the Democratic candidacy.
The political analysis and polling blog, which weighs the various electoral surveys in the United States, now shows a slight advantage for Harris over Trump of 1.5% and detects a similar shift in key states.
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