Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in the presidential race, according to a recent poll conducted by Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos.
The result represents a significant improvement for the Democrats, especially considering that just over a month ago, a similar poll showed a tie between President Joe Biden and Trump.
The survey reveals that Harris has 49% support compared to 45% for Trump among registered voters. However, according to The Washington Post, when third-party candidates are included, Harris remains at 47% compared to 44% for Trump, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. reaches 5%.
A change in the electoral dynamics
This change in voter preferences occurs at a crucial time for the Democrats, who are preparing for their national convention in Chicago.
The recent improvement in Harris's numbers indicates a change in the electoral dynamics, particularly after Biden dropped out of the presidential race in July.
In previous polls, Biden and Trump were tied, which raised concerns among Democratic leaders about Biden's ability to secure not only the White House but also to maintain control of the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Harris's lead in the current poll is not statistically significant due to the margin of error, but it reflects a positive shift for the Democrats.
Harris's three-point lead over Trump in a race that includes third-party candidates is slightly smaller than the 4.5-point margin Biden achieved in the popular vote in 2020, but it remains an indication that Harris has managed to consolidate support within her party.
Increasing satisfaction among Democrats
One notable aspect of the survey is the significant increase in satisfaction among Democratic voters with Harris's candidacy.
In July, only 20% of Democrats felt satisfied with the choice of Biden over Trump, while now, with Harris as the candidate, that percentage has risen to 60%. Additionally, 62% of Harris voters express their support "strongly," compared to the 34% who supported Biden last month.
This change has been evident in Harris's campaign events, which have attracted large crowds and generated palpable enthusiasm among Democratic voters. These large events have even provoked reactions from Trump, who falsely claimed that the photos from Harris's events had been generated by artificial intelligence.
Challenges in the Electoral College and Key States
Despite the positive momentum for Harris nationwide, the race for the presidency is expected to be tight, especially in the seven key states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada) that are likely to determine the outcome in the electoral college.
Although some polls have shown that Harris has gained ground in most of these states, the numbers indicate that the contest in these places remains within the typical margin of error, suggesting that the final outcome remains uncertain.
Public perceptions and personal attributes
Another relevant aspect of the survey is how voters perceive Harris compared to Trump. While both candidates have negative approval ratings, Harris surpasses Trump in several key areas.
The Democrat is considered more honest and trustworthy than Trump by a margin of 15 points and also surpasses Trump in questions about who better represents the personal values of voters and who understands common people's issues better.
Regarding personal attributes, Harris, 59, also surpasses Trump in terms of mental sharpness and physical health. In July, Trump had a 30-point advantage over Biden in mental sharpness and a 31-point advantage in physical health, but Harris has managed to reverse that advantage, surpassing Trump by nine points in mental sharpness and by 30 points in physical health.
The role of key issues in elections
The economy and inflation remain the dominant issues in this election, with approximately half of Americans stating that these will be decisive in choosing a candidate.
The protection of democracy, the situation at the border between the United States and Mexico, and healthcare are also among the most important issues for voters.
The survey reflects a complex and fluid electoral landscape, where Harris has managed to gain significant ground since she took on the Democratic nomination. However, the road to November will be marked by tight competition in key states and the ongoing influence of issues that are highly relevant to voters.
The Democratic convention in Chicago and the upcoming debates will be crucial for consolidating support for Kamala Harris and maintaining the positive momentum in this presidential race.
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