Extended blackouts due to a deficit in electricity generation in Cuba.

The situation of the National Electric System (SEN) remained critical over the last 24 hours due to a serious deficit in generation capacity, according to the Electric Union (UNE). The impact, which has caused nationwide power outages, has still not been resolved.

The maximum peak of impact during the highest demand period was 1514 MW, recorded at 8:20 PM yesterday. This morning, the SEN reports an availability of 2130 MW against a demand of 2650 MW, which leaves a deficit of 520 MW for peak hours, increasing the impact that could reach around 1000 MW.

Causes of the Affected Areas: The UNE reported that several generating units are out of service due to various failures, including:

• The unit 4 of the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes Thermal Power Plant (CTE).
• Units 5 and 6 of the CTE Nuevitas.
• Unit 2 of the CTE Felton.
• Unit 5 of CTE Rente.

In total, the limitations in thermal generation reach 437 MW. Additionally, 46 distributed generation plants are out of service due to a lack of fuel, which affects an additional 312 MW.

Attempts to Mitigate the Deficit: For peak hours, the reactivation of unit 5 of the CTE Diez de Octubre is expected, with 70 MW, as well as the recovery of an additional 100 MW through the use of distributed generation engines, which are currently inoperable due to a lack of fuel.

Projections for the Day: The UNE estimates that, for today's peak hour, energy availability will reach 2300 MW, compared to a projected maximum demand of 3300 MW, resulting in an estimated deficit of 1000 MW. Under current conditions, an impact of up to 1070 MW is forecasted during the moments of highest demand.

This prolonged generation deficit has left a large part of the country without electricity supply, compounded by the fact that solutions seem still distant given the situation of breakdowns and the lack of fuel to meet the demand.

The deficit of up to 1512 MW reflects a structural crisis that will require long-term solutions.

During the last month, power outages have been increasing.

On September 1, 2024, the Electric Union anticipated blackouts due to a deficit of 310 MW, caused by a lack of fuel and breakdowns at several plants in different regions. On September 3, the situation worsened with blackouts exceeding 600 MW, resulting from failures in six thermal units across the country. By September 7, three more units suffered damage, leading to a deficit of 725 MW during peak hours. On September 9, the forecast deteriorated with a deficit of 820 MW for the time of highest demand. On September 11, several areas of Havana reported a maximum impact of 698 MW due to local breakdowns, while on September 12, a national impact exceeding 700 MW was estimated. On September 15, blackouts approaching 900 MW were forecasted due to rising demand.

By September 16, the deficit rose to 1,000 MW during peak hours, and on September 18, more than 1,300 MW were out of service, affecting much of the country. Finally, on September 19, the deficit reached 1,514 MW, causing outages of up to 24 hours.

The energy crisis in Cuba has notably worsened throughout September 2024, with electricity generation deficits severely affecting the daily lives of the population. The lack of maintenance in infrastructure, constant breakdowns in thermoelectric units, and fuel shortages have created a landscape of prolonged and recurrent blackouts. Despite the government's attempts to mitigate the situation with temporary measures, the deficit of up to 1,514 MW reflects a structural crisis that will require long-term solutions, beyond the reach of the Cuban regime, to stabilize the country's electrical system.