Tropical storm Rafael forms and threatens to reach Cuba as a hurricane

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned this Monday about the formation of Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to intensify in the coming hours and hit Cuba as a hurricane.

The NHC warned on social media platform X that the storm will continue to strengthen as it moves toward western Cuba and the Isle of Youth, where there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surges and hurricane-force winds by Wednesday.

The additional strengthening of the storm is expected before Rafael reaches the western part of Cuba and the Isle of Youth, which indicates that severe impacts are anticipated.

At 4:00 PM, the center of tropical storm Rafael was located near latitude 15.5 North and longitude 76.7 West, moving north at a speed of 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwest movement is expected to begin later in the evening and continue over the next few days, according to the NHC.

The maximum sustained winds of Rafael have increased to approximately 45 mph (75 km/h), with stronger gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening has been forecasted, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, and the estimated minimum central pressure, based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

The NHC noted that Rafael could become a hurricane as it passes near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday night, warning of hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves in that area. Additionally, tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica from tonight through Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions could affect the Florida Keys, particularly in the lower and middle regions, starting Wednesday night. However, it was warned that rain will also reach Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States between the middle and end of the week.

The NHC pointed out that it is still early to determine the possible impacts that Rafael could have on the northern Gulf coast, so residents in that area are advised to continue monitoring weather reports.

The Prognostic Center of the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) alerted on the social network X that tropical storm Rafael, during its movement, "will gain more organization and intensity."

Additionally, he noted that on this Monday "rain and thunderstorms will continue in the eastern and central regions, which may be strong and intense in some areas."

Lastly, he emphasized that "the rainfall will later spread to the western part of Cuba."

In response to this threat, the Civil Defense General Staff of Cuba decided to declare an alert phase starting at 3:00 p.m. this Monday for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Río, and the special municipality of Isla de la Juventud.