Meteorologist José Rubiera urged attention to the development of tropical storm Rafael in the coming hours because, although the center of the weather phenomenon currently lacks significant cloud cover, it is likely to have more when it makes landfall in Cuba.
In a report for his YouTube channel, the popular Cuban meteorologist stated that "the bands forming are very consistent," and that the storm is gaining "structure rapidly," which could become even more pronounced as Rafael moves into the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.
Regarding the possible trajectories, Rubiera clarified that they are currently very close together, but they become more divergent as they approach Cuba due to an anticyclonic wedge, which is directing the forecast to the northwest. However, changes in trajectory could still occur in the next few hours.
"The anticyclone could either retreat slightly or move a bit further into the Gulf of Mexico," pointed out Rubiera, who noted that, in any case, the wedge of possible trajectories primarily crosses over Cuba above Pinar del Río.
Regarding the forecast of intensity, José Rubiera indicated that Rafael is expected to strengthen to possibly become a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall in Cuba.
Among the conditions that could promote this evolution are the very high caloric content of the Caribbean waters, an excess of humidity at lower levels, and the presence of weak winds in the upper atmosphere—all factors that Rubiera believes could "lead to rapid intensification."
At this moment, the tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h at its center.
Tropical storm Rafael brushed past Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
At 7:00 a.m. EST, Tropical Storm Rafael was located 130 km south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and 370 km southeast of Grand Cayman.
The maximum sustained winds were 95 km/h (60 mph), and it was moving northwest at 20 km/h (13 mph).
The minimum recorded central pressure was 993 mb (29.33 inches).
Alerts and Warnings
A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands and several Cuban provinces: Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and Isla de la Juventud. Additionally, a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spíritus, and Ciego de Ávila.
Additionally, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the Cuban provinces of Camagüey and Las Tunas, the Florida Keys from Key West to the 5th Canal Bridge, and the Dry Tortugas.
In total, 11 Cuban provinces and the Isle of Youth are under some form of warning.
The warnings indicate that hurricane winds could reach the affected areas within 36 hours, so it is recommended that residents in those regions prepare for the arrival of the phenomenon.
Tropical storm conditions may occur in areas under warning, and these conditions are expected to be possible in areas under advisory within the next 48 hours.
Regarding the trajectory and forecast, Rafael is expected to pass near Jamaica in the morning, reach the Cayman Islands by night, and approach the western part of Cuba on Wednesday.
A steady strengthening is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours, becoming a hurricane before making landfall in Cuba.
The dangers and impacts on land include strong winds, with hurricane conditions approaching the Cayman Islands this afternoon and the western region of Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, on Wednesday.
Jamaica will face tropical storm conditions until the afternoon. Intense rainfall is expected, with accumulations of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) in Jamaica and western Cuba, and peaks of up to 250 mm (10 inches) in mountainous areas, which may lead to flash floods and landslides.
The storm surge could raise sea levels in the Cayman Islands by 1 to 3 feet and along the southern coast of Cuba by 6 to 9 feet in areas with onshore winds.
In addition, the waves generated by Rafael will affect the western Caribbean, creating dangerous rip current conditions. There is a possibility of tornadoes on Wednesday in the Florida Keys and the southwest peninsula.
Residents in the affected areas are advised to follow updates from local weather services and take necessary precautions.
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