Despite the imminent passage of Hurricane Rafael over Cuban territory, the Electric Union (UNE) has forecasted power outages of approximately 1,354 MW during the night on Wednesday, a figure that is expected to be even higher, reaching 1,400 MW, during the daytime.
This means that, aside from the disruptions caused by the hurricane, Cubans must anticipate power outages well in advance.
The report on the situation of the National Electric System (SEN) for November 6, 2024, indicated that yesterday the electric service was disrupted for 24 hours due to a significant deficit in generation capacity, a situation that has persisted until the early hours of today.
The peak impact of this deficit was recorded at 6:20 PM, reaching 1,768 MW, although it did not coincide with the peak hours.
According to UNE, this level of impact exceeded expectations due to a demand higher than forecasted, the unexpected shutdown of unit 4 at the CTE Cienfuegos, and the failure to restore power at the Melones barge due to fuel issues.
In Guantánamo, 3 MW of damage was reported due to the passage of a hurricane.
At 7:00 a.m. today, the availability of the National Electric System was 1,500 MW, while the demand stood at 2,550 MW, resulting in a capacity deficit of 1,095 MW.
It is expected that by midday, the impact of the deficit will reach 1,400 MW, concentrated particularly in the central-eastern region due to energy transfers to that area.
Regarding the generating units, unit 5 of the Mariel CTE, unit 5 of the Nuevitas CTE, unit 4 of the Cienfuegos CTE, unit 2 of the Felton CTE, and unit 3 of the Renté CTE are out of service.
Additionally, units 2 of the Santa Cruz CTE, unit 3 of the Cienfuegos CTE, unit 1 of the Felton CTE, and unit 5 of the Renté CTE are under maintenance.
The limitations in thermal generation total 335 MW.
A total of 78 distributed generation plants are out of service due to a lack of fuel, representing 429 MW offline; in addition, the trailer in Santiago de Cuba, with a capacity of 64 MW, brings the total to 493 MW unavailable for this reason.
During peak hours, the entry of two engines in the Melones truck is expected, which would contribute 36 MW, along with the recovery of 80 MW from distributed generation plants currently offline due to a lack of fuel.
With this forecast, a capacity of 1,616 MW is expected to meet a peak demand of 2,900 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,284 MW.
Under these conditions, a disruption of 1,354 MW is forecasted for peak hours if the situation remains unchanged.
However, changes to that situation are quite likely due to the imminent arrival of Hurricane Rafael in Cuban territory, which is expected to make landfall later this Wednesday afternoon.
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