Donald Trump and the Republican Party could face a legislature with almost complete control in the United States Congress, following the preliminary results of the recent elections.

If this legislative dominance were to consolidate, it would provide Trump with a unique opportunity to implement his agenda without significant obstacles from the Democrats.

So far, the Republican Party has secured 52 of the 100 seats in the Senate, surpassing the simple majority required to control the upper chamber. This outcome is partly due to victories in key states such as West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana, where Republicans successfully captured seats previously held by Democrats.

In the Senate, this majority will provide Trump and his team a favorable position to promote reforms and confirm key appointments in the cabinet and judiciary, consolidating a conservative direction in federal institutions.

Situation in the House of Representatives

In the House of Representatives, the Republican Party is close to solidifying its majority, with 214 seats secured out of the 218 needed for control.

With several seats still undecided in states like California and Arizona, Republicans are just four away from a majority. The disputes in California and Arizona, in particular, keep the ultimate control of this chamber in suspense, as both parties strive to consolidate their representation.

Consequences for the legislative agenda

If the Republicans manage to secure both chambers, Trump would have a wide margin to promote his legislative agenda, which prioritizes issues such as immigration, border security, tax cuts, and an economic policy focused on strengthening the private sector.

Political analysts agree that this new balance of power represents a significant shift in U.S. politics, granting Republicans an unprecedented ability to implement profound changes.

Implications for the relationship with Cuba

A Trump administration with control of both chambers of Congress could have significant implications for the relationship between the United States and Cuba.

By examining their previous policies and Republican priorities, potential changes and stricter measures can be anticipated in key areas such as immigration, diplomatic relations, the embargo, and the Cuban Adjustment Act.

Immigration Policy and the Cuban Adjustment Act

During his previous term, Trump imposed restrictions on immigration in general and on Cuban migration in particular, focusing on limiting access to residency programs and immigration benefits. Under Republican control, a Trump administration could attempt to introduce more restrictive policies for Cuban migrants seeking to benefit from the Cuban Adjustment Act, a law that allows Cubans to obtain permanent residency after one year of stay in the U.S.

The previous Trump administration eliminated the "Parole" program for Cuban professionals and suspended visa processing in Havana, forcing Cubans to travel to third countries to complete their applications.

With control of Congress, it is likely that Trump will maintain or expand these restrictions, limiting the flow of migration. The impact would be particularly strong given the recent surge in migration from Cuba, due to the difficult economic and social conditions on the island.

Diplomatic Relations and Embassies

Under his previous administration, Trump reversed much of the engagement policies initiated by Barack Obama, restricting diplomatic interaction and limiting staff at the embassy in Havana. In 2017, the State Department drastically reduced the diplomatic staff in Cuba, citing health issues affecting its personnel (the well-known "Havana Syndrome").

With a aligned Congress, it is likely that Trump will not only maintain these restrictions but also strengthen oversight and reduce bilateral collaboration on issues such as cultural or academic exchange.

A tightening of visa policies and a minimal diplomatic staff would further complicate consular procedures and strain diplomatic relations overall. Furthermore, a Republican Congress could endorse measures that hinder the establishment of new lines of cooperation between the two governments.

Embargo and economic sanctions

During his first term, Trump imposed new restrictions under the embargo, limiting American travel to Cuba, restricting remittances, and prohibiting transactions with Cuban companies linked to the government.

It is likely that Trump, with a Republican majority in Congress, will focus on tightening these sanctions, as control of both chambers would facilitate the implementation of new restrictions under the Helms-Burton Act, which was fully activated during his administration.

This tightening could involve stricter restrictions for international companies wishing to invest in Cuba, which would impact the Cuban economy by limiting its access to foreign investment.

By controlling Congress, the Trump administration could promote legislative measures to prevent any relaxation of the embargo, thwarting attempts at economic normalization or the reestablishment of trade relations.

General Perspective: Towards Greater Isolation

In general, a Trump administration with power in both chambers would likely adopt an isolationist approach toward Cuba, justifying these policies as a means to exert pressure for political change on the island.

Through harsher sanctions and reduced diplomatic interaction, the administration may aim to weaken the Cuban government's economic support and further isolate it in the international context.

Based on his history, Trump and an aligned Congress would be less likely to implement rapprochement policies, which could lead to a freezing of bilateral relations, further limiting the channels for dialogue and collaboration between the two countries.

The control of both chambers of Congress and U.S. foreign policy

Control of both chambers of Congress (the Senate and the House of Representatives) is crucial for a U.S. president's foreign policy, as it provides the necessary support to implement and sustain international strategies more effectively.

Approval of Treaties and Appointments

The Senate, in particular, has the constitutional authority to ratify international treaties and approve key appointments in foreign policy, such as ambassadors and high officials in the Department of State.

When the president and their party control the Senate, the confirmation process for these officials and the ratification of treaties is much more streamlined. This is crucial, as it allows the president to implement their foreign policy vision with a trusted team and without the delays or rejections that can occur in a Senate controlled by the opposition.

Sanctions and Embargoes

Both chambers can legislate on sanctions and embargoes, which are key tools in the foreign policy of the United States. For instance, laws such as the Helms-Burton Act concerning Cuba or the sanctions against countries like Iran or Venezuela require legislative support.

With a unified Congress, the president can impose or lift sanctions more swiftly and with less opposition. Congressional control also simplifies the funding of sanction policies that require resources and personnel from various government agencies.

Budget Control

Congress has the "power of the purse," meaning it controls the federal budget, which includes funding for diplomatic missions, foreign aid, defense programs, and military operations abroad.

Without the support of both chambers, the president may face budget cuts or blockages that would restrict his ability to act in foreign policy. With control of both chambers, the president can secure adequate funding to implement his foreign strategy, whether in the form of cooperation and economic aid or in support of military missions and security programs.

Legislation to Support Foreign Policy

A congress controlled by the president's party can enact laws that strengthen its foreign policy, such as regulations on immigration, trade, cybersecurity, and human rights.

This also includes the possibility of amending restrictive laws or, conversely, tightening regulations on specific issues, such as trade embargoes or visa restrictions.

The legislation passed in this context becomes a legal tool that allows the president to uphold his policies over time, even in the face of potential judicial challenges.

Political support and unity before the international community.

Having a politically aligned Congress provides the president with an image of unity and strength on the international stage, which can enhance their position in negotiations and dialogues with other countries.

The international community observes the political cohesion of the United States, and when the president has legislative backing, he possesses greater capacity for influence and persuasion over other governments, as it demonstrates a solid stance in his policies.

The control of both houses allows the president to act more coherently and decisively on the international stage, minimizing internal barriers that could hinder decisions and maximizing the ability to project power and influence globally.