The regime of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria, one of the main pillars of the geopolitical axis formed by Russia, Iran, and Cuba, has collapsed after 53 years of Baathist control.
In a lightning offensive, the armed opposition captured the capital, Damascus, forcing the former leader to flee, whose whereabouts are currently unknown, according to the newspaper ABC.
The fall of the regime represents a major blow to its historical allies, particularly Havana, which maintained a strong diplomatic relationship with the Syrian government for years, supporting it internationally and establishing cooperation agreements.
Collapse of the regime and flight of Al-Assad
In a swift military operation, the opposition first captured Homs, a key strategic city, before quickly advancing towards Damascus.
The regime's downfall was hastened by mass defections within the Syrian armed forces, whose loyalty to the president crumbled as opposing troops advanced toward the capital.
According to insurgent sources, Al-Assad is said to have left the country on a plane, although this information has not been officially confirmed.
Scenes of jubilation multiplied in the squares of Damascus. Thousands of people celebrated the end of the regime, toppling statues of Hafez Al-Assad, the president's father, and waving revolutionary flags in black, white, and green.
The Syrian army issued a televised message announcing the reorganization of its troops in the southern regions to “prevent incidents,” although by that point its authority was practically dissolved.
Abu Mohammed Al Golani, leader of the insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), sent a message to the population assuring a peaceful and orderly transition.
He also urged his fighters to avoid reprisals and to protect those who lay down their arms, in an effort to prevent a chaotic scenario similar to the one that followed the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq.
Strategic alliance: Cuba, Syria, Russia, and Iran
The fall of Damascus represents a significant setback for the coalition formed by Havana, Moscow, and Tehran, which has supported Al-Assad in major international forums and on the battlefield for over a decade.
Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Cuba has been one of the leading diplomatic supporters of Bashar Al-Assad.
Havana has repeatedly voted against UN Human Rights Council resolutions that condemned human rights violations in Syria, labeling them as "external interference."
In an interview with the Prensa Latina agency in 2016, Bashar Al-Assad expressed his "deep gratitude" to the Cuban government for its ongoing support and sent "warm greetings" to the people of the island.
This bond was solidified by the promise of then Cuban Minister of Foreign Trade, Rodrigo Malmierca, that Cuba would assist in the future reconstruction of Syria once the armed conflict had ended.
Bilateral cooperation also extended to education, with the provision of scholarships for Syrian students to study medicine at Cuban universities, as reported in 2023. This program further strengthened the ties between the two countries at a time when Syria was facing a devastating war.
Russia and Iran: Military Supporters of the Regime
Moscow and Tehran played a crucial role in the survival of the Syrian regime for over a decade.
Russia, a historical ally of Damascus, established a permanent military presence in Syria through the naval base in Tartus and the airbase in Hmeimim. Beginning in 2015, its military intervention helped turn the tide of the war in favor of Al-Assad.
Iran, through the Quds Force and the Lebanese group Hezbollah, provided direct military support, including troops on the ground and millions of dollars in financial assistance. This military backing secured the regime's position even during the most critical moments of the conflict.
However, the inaction of Russia and Iran in recent days suggests a potential strategic distancing from allies who are mired in their own conflicts, whether it be the invasion of Ukraine or the support for the forces fighting against Israel in the Middle East.
So far, neither government has issued official statements regarding the fate of Syria, despite having significant strategic interests in the country. For Russia, this includes its naval base in Tartus, which represents its fleet's presence in the Mediterranean.
International Reactions and the Future of the Middle East
The fall of Damascus calls into question the future of Russian and Iranian influence in the Middle East, especially following the U.S. military withdrawal in 2018, which created a power vacuum that Moscow and Tehran were able to fill.
With the collapse of Al-Assad's regime, both countries are facing a strategic setback that could alter the balance of power in the region.
In Cuba, the blow is both diplomatic and symbolic. Havana loses one of its key international allies, a partner that had been crucial for its foreign policy at a time when the Cuban regime faced sanctions and international isolation.
The lack of Syrian support on global platforms could further aggravate Cuba's position on the diplomatic stage.
Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding the whereabouts of Bashar Al-Assad and the fate of the forces loyal to his government keeps the region on edge. The new insurgent leaders face the monumental challenge of stabilizing a country ravaged by over a decade of war, while the world watches closely the future of one of the most complex and violent conflicts in recent history.
Frequently asked questions about the fall of Bashar Al-Assad's regime in Syria and its implications.
How does the fall of Bashar Al-Assad affect his allies such as Cuba, Iran, and Russia?
The downfall of the Al-Assad regime represents a severe blow to its allies, particularly Cuba, Iran, and Russia, who have diplomatically and militarily supported the Syrian government for years. Cuba, in particular, loses a crucial ally for its foreign policy, which could worsen its international isolation. On the other hand, Russia and Iran find their strategic influence in the Middle East compromised, especially in the context of the power vacuum left by the United States' withdrawal in 2018, which they had begun to fill.
What is Bashar Al-Assad's current whereabouts following the collapse of his regime?
The whereabouts of Bashar Al-Assad are currently unknown. It is reported that he may have left Syria on a plane, but this information has not been officially confirmed. The uncertainty regarding his situation adds an element of suspense to the already complex political dynamics of the region.
What role did Russia and Iran play in supporting Bashar Al-Assad's regime in Syria?
Russia and Iran were the main military supporters of the Syrian regime, ensuring its survival during over a decade of conflict. Russia established a significant military presence through its bases in Tartus and Hmeimim, while Iran, through the Quds Force and Hezbollah, provided troops and financial support. However, their recent inaction suggests a possible strategic distancing due to their own regional conflicts.
What are the consequences of the fall of the Syrian regime for Cuba and its foreign policy?
For Cuba, the fall of Al-Assad's regime represents both a diplomatic and symbolic blow. Havana loses a key player in its international strategy, as Syria has been an ally in global forums. This loss could exacerbate Cuba's diplomatic isolation, impacting its ability to contend with sanctions and international pressures.
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