Jorge Piñón, a Cuban analyst at the Energy Institute of the University of Texas in Austin, believes that "Cuba has neither the time nor the money to resolve its energy crisis." In statements to EFE, he asserts that 2025 will be another "extremely difficult" year for Cubans, especially considering that the Island experienced three massive blackouts during the final stretch of 2024.

According to the expert, behind the power outages lies a daily deficit of 80,000 barrels of fuel (a calculation based on 2022 data), which the regime reduced by 20,000 barrels per day in 2024. Out of this, 23,000 barrels are supplied daily from Venezuela, well below the 55,000 barrels that have been sent in the past. This has occurred because Maduro has prioritized agreements with Chevron and Repsol over those with Cuba.

Last year, the Mexican state-owned company Pemex exported $500 million worth of oil and derivatives to the island from January to September. These figures confirm that Mexico is the leading fuel supplier to Díaz-Canel's regime, ahead of Venezuela. However, the analyst warns that the situation could change with Donald Trump's arrival in the White House on January 20.

On one hand, Trump can pressure Claudia Sheinbaum, the Mexican president, to reduce or suspend the supply to the Cuban dictatorship, as 65% of the natural gas consumed by Mexico comes from the United States. This volume accounts for 90% of all the gas exported by the Americans.

The other option that could benefit Cuba is if Trump restores the sanctions on Venezuela, which were lifted by Biden upon taking office. If Maduro can no longer generate revenue from oil sales to Chevron and Repsol, he will sell it to Havana, and in the process, Claudia Sheinbaum will relieve herself of the burden of having to cut oil shipments to the island.

Meanwhile, the options presented by the Díaz-Canel regime are all long-term, such as the construction of 100 solar parks across the country, which are expected to generate 2,000 megawatts. Currently, the country meets only 9% of its demand with photovoltaic energy and aims to increase this percentage to 37% by 2031.

The expert from the University of Texas believes that it's not just about installing the panels, but also about purchasing the batteries needed to generate energy. This doesn't even take into account the significant investment required for maintenance. He adds that this is not typically something a country that lives day by day can afford to do.

A year ago, Piñón questioned the Cuban regime's justifications regarding the fuel crisis in the country and dismissed the idea that the issue lies in supply, refinery deficiencies, or crude oil storage capacity. He believes that the Cuban government could have sold more gasoline to the international market than usual, compromising domestic consumption, which has led to the current energy crisis.

He predicted the collapse of the system

Last July, Jorge Piñón predicted the complete collapse of Cuba's electrical system due to the government's poor management, and his forecasts came true on October 18, 2024, with a massive blackout lasting three days across the Island, followed by two more.

Piñón has stated in press interviews that the Cuban authorities are not implementing the measures that the country truly needs to overcome the current energy crisis. "They cannot continue with this patchwork policy of relying on the thermoelectric plants they rented from Turkey... In other words, a structural recapitalization is necessary," he emphasized.

He also recalled that in 2016, Cuba signed an agreement with the Russian energy company Inter-RAO worth 1.3 billion euros for the construction of four units, each with a capacity of 200 megawatts: three in Havana del Este and one in Mariel. The fate of that investment remains unknown.

The regime also announced the construction of a biomass plant at the Ciro Redondo sugar mill in Ciego de Ávila, a project worth 140 million dollars with investments from the Azcuba company and a British firm. This plant was completed and ready to operate in December 2021, but it did not start functioning because there was no sugarcane on the island. There wasn't even any marabú.