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The Colombian chancellor Rosa Villavicencio reopened this week the regional debate on a "negotiated exit" for Nicolás Maduro, stating from Madrid that Colombia would be willing to support a transition plan that guarantees the personal security of the Venezuelan dictator in exchange for new legitimate elections.
“Maduro can leave without having to go to jail, allowing someone capable of leading a democratic transition to come in,” Villavicencio said in an interview with Bloomberg, during an official visit to Spain. According to the head of Colombian diplomacy, that option would be “the healthiest” for the country and for the region.
The statements coincide with a series of similar messages issued months earlier by Colombian President Gustavo Petro and his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who in 2024 insisted on the necessity of calling new elections in Venezuela after elections that were widely questioned for fraud and the exclusion of opposition candidates.
However, these pronouncements—though now reactivated by Villavicencio—do not represent a new or coordinated proposal between Bogotá and Brasília.
In fact, the last time both governments publicly advocated for an electoral solution was before the deployment of the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford in the Caribbean, and not as a direct reaction to that military movement.
A parallel plan within chavismo
In parallel to the public proposals from Colombia and Brazil, recent reports have circulated about an internal and confidential plan from the Venezuelan regime, led by Delcy Rodríguez and Jorge Rodríguez, to offer the United States a transition without Maduro.
According to a report by the Miami Herald and covered by outlets such as Euronews, the brothers submitted at least two formal proposals in 2025 —one in April and another in September— in which Maduro would step down within three years and Delcy would assume the presidency to complete the term until 2031.
The plan was reportedly channeled through intermediaries in Qatar, with the intention of demonstrating to Washington that a "more digestible" version of chavismo was ready to take the reins.
However, the White House reportedly explicitly rejected the offer, understanding that it only served to preserve the structures of Chávez's power—something Washington is not willing to tolerate.
This internal element of the regime's crisis reinforces the thesis of the analyst Martin Rodríguez y Rodríguez: although negotiations may take place for Maduro's departure, the true factor of change will be the internal fracturing of the military and economic power of chavismo, not just diplomatic agreements.
A diplomatic gesture with little chance of success
For Rodríguez, the author of a recent commentary in The Washington Times, calls for a negotiated exit come too late and lack a realistic basis.
"The regime in Caracas is not a conventional government, but a network of criminal protection," writes the expert, who argues that Maduro no longer has military cohesion or popular support to sustain an orderly transition process.
According to their analysis, the chavista power structure resembles a “balance of distrust”, where each faction fears betrayal from the others. In that context, a real threat to their security or wealth would provoke flight, not resistance.
This thesis contrasts with the gradualist approach of Colombia and Brazil, which seek to maintain channels of dialogue to avoid a humanitarian crisis or open conflict in the region.
Nonetheless, previous mediation experiences—from the Oslo dialogue to the rounds in Mexico—show a consistent pattern: Chavismo buys time, reorganizes its repressive apparatus, and divides the opposition.
Washington exerts pressure, the Caribbean is heating up
Meanwhile, Washington has reinforced its military presence in the Caribbean and has toughened its rhetoric regarding Venezuela. The administration of Donald Trump has reiterated that it will not accept another electoral farce and that it will keep "all options on the table."
The deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford has been interpreted by regional analysts as a direct message to Caracas, at a time when U.S. intelligence networks are detecting fractures within the Venezuelan military leadership and unusual financial movements among high-ranking officials of the Chavismo.
In that scenario, the offers of "safe withdrawal" or "personal guarantees" that Bogotá and Brasília promote lose political traction and strategic value. As Rodríguez points out, authoritarian regimes typically do not fall through negotiation, but when their military base refuses to continue fighting.
“Careful sequencing, directed intelligence, and the memory of Panama will produce collapse, not chaos,” concludes the analyst, referring to the precedent of the fall of Manuel Noriega in 1989.
A clock that runs in Caracas
The Colombian initiative seems more like a diplomatic gesture than a viable roadmap.
Brazil, for its part, maintains an ambiguous position: Lula continues to advocate for dialogue, but without presenting a formal plan for new elections or guarantees for a way out.
On the other hand, the facts on the ground—internal corruption, distrust among leadership, and external military pressure—suggest that Maduro's regime is breaking down from within.
If international pressure persists and the military leadership perceives that the cost of supporting the dictator outweighs the benefits, the outcome could be swift and, as Rodríguez warns, end not in negotiation but in a flight.
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