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The behavior of the informal foreign exchange market over the past twelve months clearly reflects the deterioration of the Cuban peso against the major foreign currencies.
The data shows a sustained upward trend in the value of the euro, the dollar, and to a lesser extent, the Convertible Currency (MLC), a phenomenon that aligns with state salaries that have barely increased in real terms.
The most striking fact comes from the euro. About a year ago, it was trading around 350 Cuban pesos (CUP), and as of March 8, 2026, it reaches 580 CUP in the informal market.
The difference is 230 pesos per unit, which represents a depreciation of approximately 65.7% of the Cuban peso against the European currency during that period.
The U.S. dollar also confirms the trend. In March 2025, it hovered around 345 CUP, while today it stands at 510 CUP. This implies an increase of about 165 pesos, equivalent to a depreciation of 47.8% of the Cuban peso against the U.S. currency.
The MLC, for its part, has shown a more irregular behavior. It started at around 280 CUP, dropped for several months to a low near 190 CUP by mid-2025, and later experienced a rapid recovery that currently places it at around 400 CUP.
Compared to a year ago, the increase is around 43%, although since its lowest point, the rise exceeds 110%, reflecting the strong volatility of the market.
The graphs from the last year show three distinct phases. The first, between March and August 2025, was characterized by a gradual deterioration of the peso against the dollar and the euro.
The second period, spanning from September to November, saw an acceleration in the rise along with episodes of volatility marked by temporary declines.
The third phase, from December 2025 to March 2026, consolidates a new escalation that culminates with foreign currencies reaching their highest levels of the period.
This increase in foreign currencies would have a lesser impact if incomes were to grow at the same pace. However, the opposite is happening: while the peso rapidly loses value, state salaries have barely increased in real terms.
In the last year, the average salary in Cuba rose from around 5,839 CUP in 2024 to a range close to 6,600-6,800 CUP in 2025, according to official data. The nominal increase is around 15-18%, but it remains far below the depreciation of the peso and inflation.
When converting these salaries to the real value of the informal market, the situation becomes even more concerning. With the dollar around 510 CUP, the average salary amounts to about 13 dollars a month, while at the euro exchange rate, it barely reaches 11-12 euros.
A year ago, although the nominal salary was lower, the value in foreign currency was slightly higher.
The result is a clear loss of purchasing power. Even the highest-paying sectors—such as electricity, gas, and water or construction—barely amount to the equivalent of just a few dozen dollars per month, while sectors like trade or communal services remain at much lower levels.
The combination of the accelerated devaluation of the peso and virtually stagnant wages has created a perfect storm for the finances of Cubans.
As currencies continue to rise in the informal market and the cost of living keeps increasing, state revenues remain far from meeting the basic needs of the population.
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