In recent hours, the dollar and the euro have set a new sales record in the Cuban informal market, recording significant price increases in their average selling prices, according to reports from the independent media elTOQUE.
At the beginning of this April 12, the US dollar has skyrocketed to 525 CUP, which represents an increase of three pesos compared to its value the previous day, when it also rose.
The euro, on its part, rises to 592 CUP, marking an increase of two units.
This new rise in both currencies confirms a sustained trend of depreciation for the Cuban peso in the informal market, which continues to reflect the true state of the domestic economy in the absence of a functional official exchange market.
Exchange Rate Evolution
In the case of the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), it retains today the 395 CUP that it reached yesterday, according to the daily report from the independent media elTOQUE.
Exchange rate today 12/04/2026 - 7:51 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 525 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 592 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to TOQUE: 395 CUP.
What is the forecast for the rest of the month?
According to the latest bulletin from the Observatorio de Monedas y Finanzas de Cuba (OMFi), pertaining to this month of April, the most likely scenario points to a moderate depreciation of the national currency in the coming weeks, as revealed this Friday by elTOQUE.
Forecast models estimate the euro to be around 604 CUP by the end of the month, while the dollar could reach 533 CUP and the MLC could be around 393 CUP.
However, analysts warn that these figures are subject to high uncertainty.
The report itself indicates wide ranges of variation: the euro could fluctuate between 574 and 640 CUP, and the dollar between 503 and 590 CUP, reflecting the high volatility of the informal currency exchange market in Cuba.
An apparent stability amidst the crisis
Although in recent days there has been a certain stability in buying and selling rates, this calm is considered fragile.
According to the OMFi, it is more a response to a slowdown in economic activity than to a structural improvement.
Among the factors that explain this temporary moderation are the reduction of imports by micro, small, and medium enterprises (mipymes) and the contraction of internal trade, in a context characterized by:
-The ongoing energy crisis.
-The decline of international tourism.
-A widespread economic depression.
Far from signaling a recovery, this decreased pressure in the market reflects an economy with less capacity for movement and generation of currency.
The gap with the official market remains crucial
The analysis also calls into question the official discourse regarding the alleged existence of conditions to establish a more efficient formal currency exchange market.
While the Central Bank of Cuba places the official rate at 480 CUP per dollar and 554.16 CUP per euro in the so-called Segment III, in the informal market these currencies are sold significantly above.
The difference is around 40 CUP in the case of the dollar and more than 30 CUP for the euro.
This gap – between 5% and 8% – indicates that the informal market continues to be the real benchmark for price formation in the Cuban economy.
Less foreign currency, more pressure
Behind the depreciation of the peso are structural factors that remain unresolved. Among them is the significant drop in foreign currency inflows to the country.
Official data shows a 56% year-on-year decrease in tourist arrivals during February, along with issues in key sectors such as nickel exports and medical services abroad.
This contraction reduces the availability of foreign currency and increases pressure on the informal market.
Energy crisis and rising cost of living
The fuel shortage remains another central element in the economic deterioration.
Although there have been some specific reliefs—such as private imports or the arrival of Russian oil—the situation continues to severely impact productive activity.
Energy limitations increase transportation costs, paralyze industries, and raise logistics expenses, directly impacting final prices and the purchasing power of the population.
In this context, bicycles and electric vehicles have gained prominence as alternatives for mobility. However, their increasing demand has also driven up prices, putting additional pressure on households.
The recent issuance of higher denomination banknotes has facilitated certain cash transactions, both in private businesses and in the informal foreign exchange market itself. However, this measure has a limited impact.
Far from addressing the underlying issues, the increase in liquidity in pesos does not halt the depreciation of the currency, which continues to lose value against foreign currencies.
With the dollar at historic highs and projections anticipating further increases, the exchange rate landscape in Cuba remains dominated by uncertainty.
The combination of structural crisis, currency shortages, and a lack of trust in official mechanisms keeps the informal market as the main economic gauge of the country, where every increase in the dollar translates into a direct hit to the pockets of Cubans.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates of this April 12th:
1 USD = 525 CUP.
5 USD = 2,625 CUP.
10 USD = 5,250 CUP.
20 USD = 10,500 CUP.
50 USD = 26,250 CUP.
100 USD = 52,500 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro banknotes (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 592 CUP.
5 EUR = 2,960 CUP.
10 EUR = 5,920 CUP.
20 EUR = 11,840 CUP.
50 EUR = 29,600 CUP.
100 EUR = 59,200 CUP.
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