Related videos:
President Donald Trump recently posted on Truth Social that 98.2% of drugs smuggled through maritime routes into the United States have been "stopped" under his administration, but drug policy experts warn that this figure misrepresents the official data, reported Telemundo.
Additionally, when asked by the AP agency about the source of that statistic, the White House referred to the seizure data from the Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
However, the 98.2% figure arises from comparing only two specific months: in July 2025, the CBP seized 223,923 pounds of cocaine, fentanyl, heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamines in open waters or near the coast; in November of that same year, the number dropped to 4,463 pounds.
That July was also an atypical month, with nearly 203,000 pounds of marijuana seized, which artificially inflates the starting point of the calculation and makes the percentage drop seem misleading.
"The data on drug seizures measures interdiction activity, not the actual volume of trafficking," stated Dessa Bergen-Cico, a public health professor at Syracuse University who studies drug trafficking.
"As drug policy researchers have pointed out, no one knows how much goes unnoticed, and changes in seizure data are insufficient to make definitive claims about the outcomes of policies," Bergen-Cico added.
Jonathan Caulkins, a professor of operations research and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University, pointed out that the "ignorance regarding what the correct figures are for either of these two fundamental concepts" leads to inconsistencies and misunderstandings.
The CBP's own data contradict the narrative of near-total eradication: seizures continued to decline in December 2025 to 2,268 pounds, but in March 2026, they rose again to 28,500 pounds, according to the latest available records.
Bergen-Cico also explained that the decrease in the CBP statistics does not necessarily reflect fewer drugs in circulation.
"The decrease in drug seizures on the coast and inland between fiscal years 2025 and 2026 does not directly indicate a reduction in drug flow," he stated.
"Rather, it reflects a jurisdictional and operational transition in which the traditional maritime interdiction by the CBP has been partially replaced by operations of the military forces and the United States Coast Guard," he clarified.
In other words, the CBP only records its own operations, not those of the Coast Guard or the military, which skews any comparison.
The Coast Guard actually recorded a 200% increase in cocaine seizures in fiscal year 2025 compared to the annual average of 167,000 pounds, suggesting that trafficking has not disappeared but rather changed its routes and the agency responsible for intercepting it.
Trump's statements are part of the Southern Lance Operation, a military campaign launched in August 2025 that authorizes lethal strikes against vessels accused of drug trafficking in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific.
Since its inception, at least 51 vessels have been attacked and 178 people have died.
The most recent attack reported took place last Wednesday in the eastern Pacific Ocean, marking the fourth boat sunk in five days.
Historically, more than 90% of fentanyl entering the United States does so overland through legal entry points, according to CBP itself, which puts into perspective the real extent of maritime interdiction as a tool to curb the overall flow of narcotics.
Filed under: