Sebastián Arcos, acting director of the Cuban Studies Institute at Florida International University (FIU), claims that the Cuban regime has entered a phase of fury in response to pressure from the United States, and that the military mobilization in Havana is merely political theater.
The analyst applies the conceptual framework of the stages of grief to describe the psychological and political evolution of the Cuban regime in light of a situation that, in his view, is no longer reversible.
"Now they are in a state of fury because they know that it has indeed happened, the situation has completely changed and it is not going back to where it was before," Arcos stated.
According to the analyst, in January and February of 2026, the regime was in the first phase: denial. Now, however, it has moved on to bravado, posturing, and threats, hinting that Cuba could defend itself against a U.S. military attack.
"Something that everyone with even the slightest knowledge of the equivalences between the two military forces realizes is that it is impossible," Arcos pointed out emphatically.
The analyst describes the recent appearances of Díaz-Canel dressed in an olive green military uniform as theatrical, despite holding a civilian position, and draws a direct line between that style and that of Fidel Castro, whom he characterizes as "a great theater actor."
"But there is also a lot of theater here. Let us remember that one of Fidel Castro's qualities as a leader was that he was a great actor," said Arcos, who equates that model of leadership with figures like Hitler and Mussolini.
Arcos also pointed out in an interview granted to CiberCuba that the goal of that theatricality is clear: "They are in the phase of trying to instill bravado in a population that is tired of hearing them say nonsense and continuing to go hungry."
As an example of this staging, the analyst mentions a photograph in which high-ranking Cuban military officials are lined up next to each other, all dressed in green and with "pregnant" bellies.
This analysis comes at a time of extreme tension. On April 16, Díaz-Canel appeared in military uniform to warn about a supposed imminent aggression from the U.S., recalling the anniversary of the Bay of Pigs. Days earlier, on April 13, President Donald Trump had stated that his military would "make a stop in Cuba" after taking care of pending matters in Iran.
The regional context exacerbates the regime's situation. The fall of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 eliminated Havana's main Venezuelan ally, while Executive Order 14380, signed on January 29, imposes tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba.
The U.S., according to the press, has reportedly issued a two-week ultimatum to Cuba to free high-profile political prisoners.
Arcos had warned in previous analyses that the real power in Cuba remains in the hands of Raúl Castro, and that the nature of the regime would make some form of U.S. military action inevitable, although contingent on the prior resolution of the conflict with Iran.
"I highly doubt that the United States will take any action in Cuba without first resolving the issue of Iran in one way or another. Not due to a lack of military capability, but rather to avoid a public opinion crisis," the analyst specified.
Filed under: