The economist Elías Amor warns that Cuban tourism has been in freefall for four years and that hotel occupancy in 2026 will not reach 10%, a level at which no hotel generates profits, according to his analysis of the data from the first quarter published by the Cuban government.
Amor, interviewed by Tania Costa, notes that the only two statistics the regime regularly publishes are prices and tourism: “The two statistics we have, which are periodically published by the government, are fundamentally prices and tourism. If you want to analyze the Cuban economy, you have to use these two. There are no more data, no more information.”
The data from April shows a slight month-to-month recovery: Canadian tourists —the most important market— increased from 124,794 in March to 125,400 in April, representing a growth of 0.5%.
The number of visitors from the United States also increased, from 17,000 to 21,000; those from China, from 6,500 to 7,500; and Cuban residents abroad who entered the island, from 34,233 to 46,170.
However, Amor warns that this "small glimmer" should not be confused with real recovery: the year-on-year comparison between January-April 2026 and the same period in 2025 reveals a catastrophe.
"The issue is that half of the tourists from Canada have been lost in this first quarter of the year," states the economist, citing a year-on-year decline of 46% in that market.
Italy fell by 43.7%, the United States by 38%, France by 36.7%, and the Cuban community abroad lost nearly half of its travelers.
In total, Cuba received only 328,608 international tourists in the first quarter of 2026, a decrease of 55.8% compared to the same period in 2025.
"We are, I insist, facing a seriously ill patient. When we take the year-on-year data as a tool for analysis, the illness progresses," summarizes Amor.
The economist places the start of this crisis in 2021, when Díaz-Canel publicly declared that COVID would never reach Cuba —a message that Amor interprets as an implicit call to tourists— but the virus arrived anyway and shattered confidence in the destination.
This was compounded by the impact of the Tarea Ordenamiento initiated by then-minister Murillo, which led to rampant inflation and worsened conditions for the sector.
Love directly points to GAESA and its tourism arm Gaviota as responsible for the disaster: "GAESA, which seems to own tourism in Cuba, through hidden and opaque dealings, has been watching for five years as the revenues from the tourism sector decline and how those new and shiny hotels they have built with the money of Cubans are completely empty."
With an occupancy rate below 10%, Spanish hotel chains such as Meliá and Iberostar have temporarily closed facilities or left Cuba, while Gaviota closed 20 hotels in Cayo Santa María, leaving over 7,000 workers unemployed.
Amor projects that tourism will end 2026 between 30% and 40% below 2025, and that the summer season – with less Caribbean seasonality and more options for Europeans – will not help reverse the trend.
In the proposed plan, the economist agrees with statements made by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the Cuban tourism model must change radically: "Cuba should never have relied on sun and beach tourism from Spain. It should never have bet on sun and beach, cheap, gimmicky tourism."
The bet, according to Amor, should be on luxury tourism: marinas, golf courses, and boutique hotels by the sea in the Keys, along with complementary private offerings: "Turning Cuba into a luxury destination for those who have the money to come to Cuba. And once again, Cuba will become that wonderful city, Havana in particular, from the 1940s and 1950s, when it became a luxurious capital of the world."
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