The immigration lawyer Willy Allen offered his personal analysis on Monday regarding the photographs from the meeting between the U.S. Southern Command and the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) of Cuba, held on May 29 at the perimeter of the Guantanamo Naval Base, during his weekly program alongside journalist Tania Costa.
For Allen, the meeting itself is not something new. "Well, traditionally they have always had meetings. Periodically, they hold meetings just to make sure everyone is on the same page and to prevent any kind of tragedy or mistakes. So they have always had meetings. It's nothing different."
What was deemed unprecedented was the public dissemination of the images. It was host Tania Costa who emphasized this: "Regardless of whether these meetings are frequent, that they meet regularly, or that it’s nothing new, what is new is the photo. I mean, the photo."
Regarding the political-military context, Allen was emphatic in dismissing extreme scenarios. "I don't believe there will be an invasion next week. And I don't think the Eastern Army is ready to surrender."
Although he acknowledged that he would have "loved" for the Cuban general from the East to use the meeting to surrender —"and that way the invasion would be easier and faster"— he ruled out that this had happened or could happen.
His interpretation is that the meeting serves a political function of de-escalation, comparable to previous contacts between the CIA and Raúl Castro. “I imagine that to some extent that meeting, just like the one with the CIA before they appointed Raúl Castro in Cuba, was a political move to ease tensions. To explain: 'Look, there are things we are doing that may be more of a political nature than real. But yes, we are here. We can negotiate.'”
The meeting on May 29 was led by General Francis L. Donovan, head of the Southern Command, and General Roberto Legrá Sotolongo, First Deputy Minister and Chief of the General Staff of the FAR. Both parties described it as an exchange regarding perimeter operational security and viewed it positively, although analysts and media classified it as unusual and without recent precedents between a Southern Command chief and high-ranking Cuban military officials.
The context is not insignificant. Since March 2026, the Cuban regime has been intensifying a discourse of preparation for a hypothetical U.S. aggression, which added an extra political weight to the meeting. The reactions of Cubans on social media ranged from analysis to mockery, with expressions like "Cuba has already been taken; they just haven't realized it."
The MINFAR commented on the meeting, stating that it was "by agreement of both parties" and that both delegations viewed it positively, while the Southern Command defined the naval base at Guantánamo as a vital axis for its operations in the region.
Allen concluded his analysis with a warning about the unpredictability of the moment. "At this moment, there is no reason to think that a military action is coming. That is what I believe is happening. Now, since this government never knows..."
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