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The United States Geological Survey (USGS) published its PAGER report following the 7.5 magnitude earthquake that struck Venezuela on Wednesday, assigning a red alert —the highest level of the system— and estimating that the most probable scenario, according to its probabilistic model, anticipates between 10,000 and 100,000 fatalities. It is essential to clarify from the outset that there is no official casualty count that confirms these figures: this is an automatic probabilistic estimate, not an actual death tally.
The earthquake had its epicenter 28 kilometers southeast of Yumare, in the Yaracuy state, at a depth of only 10 kilometers, which intensified its impact on the surface. It was preceded 39 seconds earlier by a magnitude 7.2 earthquake with its epicenter near San Felipe, creating a seismic doublet with potentially devastating consequences.
The PAGER system does not report actual victims. It is a tool used by the USGS to estimate the potential impact of an earthquake through models that combine the magnitude and depth of the quake, the intensity of ground shaking, the population density exposed, and the vulnerability of buildings.
According to that model, there is a 42% chance that the deceased will fall between 10,000 and 100,000; a 33% chance of being between 1,000 and 10,000; a 17% chance of exceeding 100,000; and an 8% chance that the victims will be between 100 and 1,000.
The range of 10,000 to 100,000 fatalities represents the most likely scenario according to the USGS automatic model, but does not constitute confirmation of actual victims. The U.S. agency also warns that the content of the PAGER system is generated automatically and that estimates may vary as new information about the damages and conditions in the affected area becomes available.
The red alert indicates that numerous casualties and significant structural damage are likely, and that the disaster may require national and international assistance. The report also estimates that economic losses could amount to between 1% and 7% of Venezuela's gross domestic product (GDP), reflecting the potential magnitude of the impact on the country's infrastructure and economy.
Millions of people exposed to the strong seismic movement
Among the cities with the highest estimated seismic intensity are Puerto Cabello and Catia La Mar, with intensity VIII on the Modified Mercalli scale (severe). Caracas, La Guaira, Maiquetía, and San Felipe would record intensity VII, while Valencia, Los Teques, Petare, and Baruta would reach intensity VI.
The report highlights as an aggravating factor that a significant portion of the population lives in buildings vulnerable to earthquakes, particularly masonry structures without reinforcement and adobe block constructions, which considerably increases the risk of structural collapses.
Damage reported after the earthquake
On the ground, at least two buildings collapsed in Chacao and Los Palos Grandes, including the 14-story Petunia residential building and a Bancaribe building. Over 90 structures were affected in the state of Miranda, and authorities have started search and rescue operations.
The acting president Delcy Rodríguez declared a state of emergency following the double seismic event. The operations of Maiquetía International Airport, the Caracas Metro, and the Tuy Valleys Railway were also temporarily suspended due to inspections for possible structural damage.
The earthquake was also felt in several areas of Colombia, including Bogotá, Medellín, and Barranquilla. Additionally, tsunami warnings were issued for various regions of the Caribbean, although no significant waves were reported afterward.
Estimates may change
At the time of this publication, Venezuelan authorities had not released an official toll of victims that would allow for the confirmation or dismissal of the projections from the PAGER system.
The USGS estimates are typically revised in the hours and days following a major earthquake as emergency teams gather information on the ground and authorities update the number of fatalities, injuries, and property damage.
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