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This Thursday marks the third and final round of the group stage for Groups D, E, and F of the , featuring six simultaneous matches that will determine the last teams to qualify for the round of 16. Paraguay, Ecuador, and Japan are the key players in a matchday where every result can change the qualification landscape.
The new tournament format—48 teams divided into 12 groups of four—allows even the best third-placed teams to progress, keeping the hopes of various teams alive and raising the stakes with every goal scored.
Group D: Paraguay goes all in
The most anticipated match of the day is between Paraguay and Australia at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Both teams arrive with three points and qualification at stake. The squad led by Gustavo Alfaro made it this far with a heavy defeat—4-1 against the United States on June 12—and a narrow victory, 1-0 over Turkey on June 20.
The situation for Paraguay is clear: a victory guarantees second place in the group without the need to watch other results. Australia, which also has three points after defeating Turkey 2-0 in the first match, will look to capitalize on any misstep by the South Americans. In the parallel match, United States —already qualified with six points— faces an eliminated Turkey.
Group E: Ecuador needs the feat
The situation for Ecuador in Group E is the most precarious of the three competing teams. With only one point —resulting from a 0-1 defeat against Ivory Coast due to a goal by Amad Diallo in the 89th minute and a 0-0 draw against Curaçao despite generating 29 shots— the Ecuadorian team faces an almost impossible scenario.
Ecuador must defeat Germany at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, a team already qualified with six points and a goal difference of +7, and also hope that Ivory Coast loses to Curaçao to have mathematical chances of advancing. The history is not favorable: Ecuador has never beaten Germany in their two previous encounters, in the 2006 World Cup and in a friendly in 2013.
Group F: Japan and Sweden in direct duel
The F Group offers another high-voltage match at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, where Japan and Sweden face off in a direct battle for qualification. The Japanese arrive with four points after drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands on the first matchday and thrashing Tunisia 4-0 on June 20. Sweden, with three points, defeated Tunisia 5-1 but fell 1-5 to the Netherlands.
Both teams know that the winner of the Japan-Sweden match has almost secured a spot in the next round. In the parallel match, The Netherlands —also with four points— faces an eliminated Tunisia in Kansas City and will be looking to confirm the top position in the group.
The most dramatic day of the tournament
The third matchday of the group stage is historically the most intense of any World Cup, and this edition will be no exception. With knockout rounds drawing closer, any mistake can be decisive. Paraguay will aim to secure their qualification, Ecuador will try to create one of the biggest surprises of the tournament, and Japan and Sweden will compete for a ticket that only one of them can take home.
"With the knockout stage approaching, any mistake can be decisive, and every goal will hold immense value in the quest to keep dreaming of the world title."
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