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The head of the Cuban Seismological Service, Enrique Diego Arango, addressed the alarm generated by the intense seismic activity in June to clarify doubts: the multiple earthquakes recorded this month in various parts of the world are not directly related to each other.
This is how it was explained in an interview given to OnCuba, at the request of concerned readers following the devastating seismic tragedy in Venezuela.
The month saw an unusual number of seismic activities in various regions: on June 8, an earthquake shook western Cuba; on June 19, there were events in Ivory Coast, Russia, and New Zealand; June 24 was the most critical day, with a double seismic event with magnitudes of 7.2 and 7.5 in Venezuela —the largest in that country's history— along with earthquakes on the same day in Japan, Papua New Guinea, and California. On June 26, new events were reported in the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic.
Arango was clear in explaining why there is no causal link between all those events: "There is no direct relationship. It often happens that when a strong earthquake occurs in an area, the same vibrations that shake the ground trigger zones that are at the threshold of energy accumulation, resulting in an earthquake. It's like shaking a mango tree: the ones that are already ripe, ready to drop, fall."
The specialist also rejected the idea that there are "seismic seasons": "There are occasions, not seasons, when several earthquakes occur in a short period of time. Each earthquake happens in an area, mainly at the tectonic plate boundaries, where energy accumulates over a period of time that is proportional to its magnitude."
Another speculation circulating on social media — that certain countries possess weapons capable of causing earthquakes — was categorically dismissed by Arango: "Totally false. Moving the Earth's crust over thousands and thousands of square kilometers would require colossal energy to generate an earthquake, and it wouldn't go undetected."
Regarding the seismic risk for Cuba, the expert specified that the area of greatest danger is the southeastern part of the archipelago, near the Oriente fault.
The most intense historical earthquakes in that region reached magnitudes of 7.6 in 1776 and 7.3 in 1852.
The energy accumulated since the earthquake of 1932 —with a magnitude of 6.75 and intensity VIII on the MSK scale— could result in an event with similar characteristics in the area between Santiago de Cuba and Guantánamo.
This year, Cuba has already experienced two alarming episodes: a magnitude 6.2 earthquake in the west on June 8, felt as far away as Miami, and a magnitude 6.0 event in the east on March 17, which generated over 900 aftershocks within 24 hours.
Arango acknowledged that it is indeed possible to make long-term seismic predictions, albeit in probabilistic terms, taking into account seismic history and high-risk areas.
However, he warned that the country's current situation worsens the outlook: "There is a significant accumulated seismic vulnerability, coupled with the situation the country is facing, which we all know, that would complicate the scenario greatly."
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