The economist Elías Amor Bravo stated that inflation in Cuba is out of control, after analyzing the official data for the first half of 2026, which shows a sustained increase in prices without the regime having adopted effective measures to curb it.
According to data published by the National Office of Statistics (ONEI), the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a monthly increase of 2.82% in June, raising the accumulated total for the semester to 12.24% and the year-on-year rate to 18.27%, nearly six percentage points higher than in January.
The components that are pushing prices upward the most are food and transportation, which notably carry the greatest weight in the daily expenses of Cuban families.
The index of food and non-alcoholic beverages reached 1,010.67 points, with a base of 100 in 2010, indicating that the average price level of this group is approximately ten times higher than it was then.
In June, food prices rose by 4.29%, nearly double the overall average, with individual increases directly impacting Cuban households: oil became 14.79% more expensive and pork meat increased by 6.76%.
The transportation sector recorded an increase of 20.5% in the first half of the year, the highest among all components of the CPI, with a year-on-year rate of 23.94%. In June, intercity truck or van transportation increased by 10.79%, intercity taxi fares rose by 8.29%, and urban taxi fares climbed by 8%.
Restaurants and hotels recorded the highest year-on-year inflation across all sectors: 26.54%, while alcoholic beverages and tobacco had the largest monthly variation in June at 6.11%.
In total, ten of the twelve components of the CPI show acceleration of inflation compared to January; only health and alcoholic beverages and tobacco recorded a slowdown.
Amor Bravo is categorical in his diagnosis: «The authorities continue to fail to implement the necessary economic policies to address these inflationary processes, which confirm the severe crisis of the Cuban economy».
In addition, it is projected that if the current trend continues, inflation in Cuba could close 2026 within a range of 40-50%, which would place the country among those with the highest inflation in all of Latin America and the Caribbean: "By the end of the first half of 2026, and observing the authorities' inability to control inflation, these trends signal price increases around 40-50% by the end of the year."
The situation worsens when considering the broader context. The Cuban economy fell by 5% in 2025 and has accumulated a contraction of 15% since 2020, according to the Center for the Study of the Cuban Economy.
The fiscal deficit exceeds 12% of GDP and is financed through monetary issuance, which directly fuels the spiral of prices.
Independent economists such as Pedro Monreal and Pavel Vidal estimate that the real inflation, including the informal market, is around 70% year-on-year, well above the figures published by the ONEI.
The average Cuban salary in 2025 was 6,930 pesos, equivalent to just five dollars per month at the informal exchange rate.
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