The large-scale operations of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have left a profound and well-documented economic impact in the United States: according to an analysis by the University of Pennsylvania, operations from the previous year led to a drop of 8.1 billion visits to businesses and consumption losses ranging from 3.1 billion to 14 billion dollars.
The central mechanism behind these figures is what researchers call the "chilling effect": the fear of being detained leads immigrants to avoid leaving their homes, going to work, or shopping at businesses, with consequences that extend far beyond those who are directly arrested.
An analysis by the Brookings Institution of 86 metropolitan areas in the U.S. found that the wave of arrests was associated with the loss of 668,000 jobs, with employment averaging 0.73% below the expected levels following the operations.
The construction sector was the hardest hit: employment fell by 2.2%, equivalent to approximately 102,000 jobs lost in the cities analyzed.
One of the most significant findings from the Brookings study is that between 51,000 and 297,000 of those lost jobs would have corresponded to workers born in the United States, not to immigrants, which debunks the argument that raids benefit the native workforce.
At the local level, the numbers are equally striking. Researchers from the University of California, Irvine estimated that operations in the Los Angeles region and Orange County resulted in over 625 million dollars in lost retail sales and nearly 60 million in uncollected tax revenue in just two months.
In the high-immigrant commercial corridors of Los Angeles, pedestrian traffic fell by 8% to 10%, while consumer spending plunged by 20% to 25% in the eight weeks following the operations.
A report from Los Angeles County estimated total economic production losses of 840 million dollars in just the first month of the immigration crackdown, and in Minneapolis, the city hall projected losses nearing 200 million dollars in local commerce in the two months following the arrests.
Latino entrepreneurs in multiple states reported income drops of up to 50% following the raids. Rebeca Shi, executive director of the American Business Immigration Coalition, summed it up clearly: "Essential workers had vanished, and some operations were experiencing a slowdown of 50%."
The Cuban community in the U.S. has been one of the most affected by the intensification of operations. Arrests by ICE of Cuban citizens increased by 463% between late 2024 and early 2026, and from the beginning of Trump's second term until April 2026, 1,992 Cubans were deported to Cuba, with 612 direct repatriations occurring in just the first five months of the year.
The impact on the businesses of the Cuban community has also been direct: the restaurant La Habana Vieja in Springfield closed in May 2025 after Cuban employees lost their work permits due to immigration policy.
Researchers at the University of California, Irvine cautioned that the cooling effect "extends far beyond" those who are directly detained, impacting the entire local economy, including businesses and workers with no connection to irregular immigration.
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