The Cuban opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer stated this Tuesday that he is "100% sure" the Cuban regime will lose power and warned that its leaders have no intention of resisting until the end; on the contrary: they are already preparing for their escape.
In an interview with Tania Costa, Ferrer detailed what he believes is the escape plan of the Cuban nomenclature. "Cuba has an enormous coastline, and I am sure there are more than 20, 30, or 50 points where there are good, fast boats ready to flee when they see things getting quite tense," noted the founder of the Unión Patriótica de Cuba (UNPACU).
But the boats wouldn’t be the only resource. Ferrer went further by discussing an airplane. “Not to mention the airplane that needs to be operational and undergo daily maintenance, asking: 'How is the equipment? How is the airplane? Was it checked properly?' All to flee when things get bad.”
For the opposition leader, the rhetoric of sacrifice that Miguel Díaz-Canel has cultivated does not withstand the slightest scrutiny. "They are not going to self-immolate. All those stories from Díaz-Canel about how they will resist are just that, stories," he said, outright dismissing the speeches of the ruler, who in April 2026 told NBC News that resignation "is not in our vocabulary" and in August claimed he was willing to give his life for the 'revolution.'
Ferrer also warned about who will pay the price when the regime collapses. "They are going to lose. I am 100% sure they will lose, but innocent people are going to die," he stated. According to him, the hierarchs and officials of the repressive apparatus will be the first to put themselves "in a safe place," while the victims will be people unrelated to power.
To illustrate this pattern, Ferrer referred to the Venezuelan precedent. He pointed out that the Cuban regime had already "exposed" 32 or more individuals —members of the FAR and MININT— during the U.S. operation that captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, while its top officials took measures to protect themselves. Of those 32 Cubans who died, 11 belonged to the Armed Forces and 21 to the Ministry of the Interior, several of whom were linked to the personal security of the then Venezuelan leader.
"Those who expose, as they have already exposed 32 or more in Venezuela, are possibly the very people they use in the FAR and the MININT," Ferrer stated, emphasizing that the lives of mid-level leaders and agents matter least to those who run the system.
To explain the internal state of the regime, Ferrer drew on a historical comparison: the Persian Empire under Darius III in its phase of decline, unable to resist Alexander the Great precisely because its elites had abandoned discipline and rigor. "It was an already weak, corrupt empire, where its highest authorities were more concerned with eating, luxuries, and pleasures than with physical exercise, military training, and the practice of virtue," he said, adding, "Corruption has completely taken hold, it has eroded it, corruption among them devours it, along with pleasures, the good life, and abundance."
Ferrer’s statements come after participating alongside the artist and former political prisoner Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara in the panel “Cuba Libre: the oppression that Havana conceals,” organized by the Permanent Mission of the United States to the UN and Archivo Cuba. During this event, Cuban diplomats led by ambassador Ernesto Soberón Guzmán staged a protest with shouts of “terrorists” and offensive gestures directed at the panelists.
The incident occurs just days before the annual vote of the UN General Assembly on the resolution regarding the U.S. embargo against Cuba, scheduled for October 27 and 28, 2026.
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