An analysis of electoral data by county and precinct reveals that the Florida Amendment 3, the housing tax reform approved this week, received its strongest support in Republican-majority areas with high homeownership rates, higher incomes, and property values above the state average.
According to a review of electoral data from the Tampa Bay Times, the amendment was popular among voters from both parties—outperforming any statewide candidate by more than 10 percentage points—but it performed significantly better in the areas that supported Republican Senator Ashley Moody over her Democratic opponent, Angie Nixon.
The measure, which expands the homestead exemption for property tax from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and to $250,000 in 2028, was approved on Tuesday with 62% of the votes, two points above the required constitutional threshold.
Only nine counties did not reach that 60% threshold, and all of them voted for Democratic candidates at the top of the ballot.
The pattern of real estate ownership largely explains that gap: in counties where the amendment did not reach 60%, only 62% of homes are owner-occupied, compared to 70% in counties where it did pass.
The 23 counties with the lowest rates of homeowners gave the measure a combined support of 59%, which was not enough for it to pass. On the other hand, the 22 counties with the highest proportion of homes owned by their residents recorded a vote in favor that was 10 percentage points higher.
Among the counties with the highest support were Walton and Holmes, with 76%, followed by Charlotte, Dixie, and Suwannee, with 74% and 72% respectively. Miami-Dade recorded 66% support, while Broward was at 57%, falling below the threshold.
At the local level, data from precincts in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Hernando, and Citrus confirm the same pattern: affirmative votes were concentrated in neighborhoods with a higher average age, higher median incomes, and properties of greater value.
In Hillsborough, support was strongest in Ruskin, Riverview, and Brandon; in Pinellas, in the barrier island communities.
The Republican governor Ron DeSantis, the main proponent of the initiative, openly acknowledged the electoral pull effect the amendment had. "If Amendment 3 hadn't been on the ballot, I don't know if we would have mobilized the voters we ended up mobilizing. People wanted to vote yes, and then many of them ended up voting Republican for the rest of the ballot," he stated on Wednesday.
The approval of the measure, however, poses serious fiscal challenges for local governments: legislative projections estimate losses between 4.6 and 4.9 billion dollars for the 2027-2028 fiscal year, and between 8.4 and 8.7 billion in the following year.
Sheriff's offices, hospitals, and transportation agencies are among the entities that will experience significant funding cuts. Hialeah is considering cutting municipal salaries by up to 20% during the second year of implementation, and cities like Largo have warned about potential facility closures and job eliminations.
Tenants could also be indirectly affected: if local governments increase taxes on rental properties to compensate for lost revenue, rents could rise by up to $406 per apartment and $1,081 for single-family homes by 2028, according to estimates cited in the report.
To avoid that scenario, DeSantis called a special legislative session before the year's end with the aim of implementing the amendment and including a taxpayer bill of rights that prohibits municipalities from offsetting losses with new taxes or fees.
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