Florida TaxWatch published its economic forecast for the period 2026–2036 this Thursday, prepared in collaboration with the Regional Economic Consulting Group, featuring a significant upward revision compared to previous estimates: the unemployment rate in the state is expected to peak this year at 4.51% and the economy will generate nearly one million net jobs in the next decade.
The report for the third quarter of 2026 improves the forecasts for unemployment and economic growth compared to the one published last June, which projected a peak unemployment rate in 2028 and a real GDP growth of only 2.5% for this year.
Jeff Kottkamp, president and CEO of Florida TaxWatch, attributed the optimistic turn to two factors: greater clarity in U.S. tariff policy and the emerging impact of artificial intelligence.
"The peak of uncertainty seems to be behind us," he stated, adding that "long-term changes are driven solely by artificial intelligence, and the productivity gains associated with this technology are already starting to be reflected in macroeconomic data."
In terms of employment, the projection estimates the number of people employed in Florida to be 12.17 million by 2036, compared to 11.17 million estimated for 2026, representing an increase of approximately one million workers.
The unemployment rate, which is expected to peak at 4.51% this year, will gradually decline to 4.07% by 2036, according to the forecast.
The real GDP would grow on average by more than 3.4% annually over the decade, nearly half a point above what was anticipated in the previous forecast, with a peak expected in 2028 directly linked to the productivity generated by artificial intelligence.
Tourism also ranks among the major winners of the period: the number of visitors is expected to rise from 143.4 million in 2026 to 183.3 million in 2036, an increase of nearly 28%.
For the Cuban community in Florida —which encompasses nearly 962,511 residents of Cuban origin just in Miami-Dade, 35.15% of the county— the job market has direct implications.
Among the sectors that experienced the highest job gains in Florida over the past 12 months are education and health (+40,300 jobs), professional and business services (+19,300), leisure and hospitality (+16,800), trade, transportation, and utilities (+8,300), and construction (+3,300). The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metropolitan area recorded an unemployment rate of 3.2% in September.
However, the report itself warns that the prospects for growth in personal income are more unequal and do not reflect the same improvements anticipated for GDP.
This gap is particularly evident in housing costs. The median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Miami is around $2,500 per month, whereas the per capita income in Miami-Dade is approximately $39,000 per year.
Nearly 90% of Floridians surveyed by Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in October 2025 expressed concern over inflation, and almost half said they had considered leaving the state due to the cost of living.
This is compounded by the slowdown in immigration processing: approvals under the Cuban Adjustment Act fell from nearly 50,000 between April and June 2024 to just 139 in the same period of 2026, with over 342,000 cases pending, a situation that leaves thousands of Cubans uncertain as they await permanent residency in the United States.
Among the main risks identified in the report for the period are the volatility of energy prices—particularly with geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz as a looming threat—and the global increase in financing costs.
Kottkamp acknowledged, however, that "consumer spending and domestic private purchases exceeded expectations despite the rise in energy costs," which reinforces the more optimistic tone of the forecast.
Related videos:
Filed under: