The potential tropical cyclone Sara, the 19th of the current hurricane season, continues to move westward across the Caribbean Sea, but it does not pose a threat to Cuba at this time, according to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
In the advisory issued at 4:00 p.m., the NHC warned that "it is too early to determine what impacts the system might cause in parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle of next week," while urging residents in these areas to regularly monitor forecast updates.
The NHC has been monitoring this disturbance, which has produced "disorganized showers and thunderstorms" over the central Caribbean Sea, as the likelihood increases that it will develop into a tropical depression in the next two to three days.
If it gains enough organization and strength in the coming days, this system could become the tropical cyclone Sara. If it happens, it would be the eighteenth named tropical storm of the active 2024 hurricane season in the Atlantic.
The National Weather Service (NWS) said on Wednesday that the tropical system does not pose a threat to South Florida at this time.
According to forecasts from the NHC, the system will strengthen until early next week, and its heavy rains will "cause significant and potentially deadly flash floods and landslides in parts of Central America, particularly in Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua."
Meteorologists also predict that the disturbance will reach a strength close to that of a hurricane as it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday, potentially leading to hurricane and tropical storm conditions in portions of that area.
They also anticipate that the system will approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico as a hurricane or near hurricane strength early next week, posing a risk of dangerous storm surges and destructive winds.
Marked by uncertainty, the forecasting models of this agency indicated a moderate probability that its path would impact Cuba, which is still recovering from the devastation caused by two hurricanes in less than a month: Oscar in the eastern region, which, in addition to leaving a trail of destruction, resulted in at least eight fatalities in Guantánamo and two missing persons, according to government figures; and Rafael, in the western part of the island, where the population continues to suffer the aftermath and losses caused by the powerful cyclone.
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