The informal market continues to experience some fluctuations in Cuba, particularly with the euro, which has been the most active currency in recent days.
At dawn this Wednesday, the European currency sells for an average of 345 CUP on the black market, representing an increase of four pesos compared to the previous day.
The euro has been experiencing fluctuations for several consecutive days.
The dollar, on the other hand, remains stable and continues to be priced at 340 CUP. The U.S. currency has now been at the same price for five days.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) starts today at 240 CUP for the third consecutive day.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The informal foreign exchange market in Cuba continues to be volatile, reflecting an economy in decline and fluctuating government measures that intermittently encourage or discourage the street-side purchase of hard currency.
Exchange rate today 01/15/2025 - 9:09 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 340 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 345 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 240 CUP.
Equivalences of each available euro and US dollar bill to Cuban pesos (CUP)
U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates on this January 15:
1 USD: 340 CUP.
5 USD: 1,700 CUP.
10 USD: 3,400 CUP.
20 USD: 6,800 CUP.
50 USD: 17,000 CUP.
100 USD: 34,000 CUP.
Euro (EUR):
1 EUR = 345 CUP.
5 EUR = 1.725 CUP.
10 EUR = 3,450 CUP.
20 EUR = 6,900 CUP.
50 EUR = 17,250 CUP.
100 EUR = 34,500 CUP.
What is known about the upcoming "floating exchange rate" that could change the dynamics of the informal currency market in Cuba?
The implementation of a floating exchange rate in Cuba, announced by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero in December 2024, aims primarily to compete with the informal currency market. However, this project faces skepticism from experts and numerous structural challenges.
It is expected that the official floating rate will aim to align more closely with that of the informal market (currently more competitive), which could encourage economic actors to operate within the formal market.
However, economist Pavel Vidal pointed out recently that, without deep economic reforms or macroeconomic stabilization measures, it will be difficult to displace the informal market, which has become sophisticated and digitalized.
The cited source estimates that it is likely that the formal and informal markets will coexist for a long time, as the former faces challenges in terms of credibility, infrastructure, and currency flow.
The same source claims that among the challenges of the promised "floating exchange rate" is the lack of infrastructure; that is, the insufficient technological and logistical capacity in banks and exchange houses could perpetuate the preference for the informal market.
Another challenge is the inflationary pressures, meaning the lack of clear policies to control inflation and improve the economy, which could undermine confidence in the formal system.
In conclusion, some experts believe that the introduction of a floating exchange rate could represent a step forward in Cuban economic policy, but its success will depend on economic and fiscal restructuring; the transparency and autonomy of the Central Bank; and the integration of the floating rate into a unified strategy for the monetary system.
Without these conditions, it is unlikely that the informal market will disappear in the short term, remaining a crucial player in the Cuban currency landscape. Meanwhile, the daily "dance" of the informal currency market in Cuba continues.
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