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The Cuban government acknowledged that inflation rose again in August, according to the latest report from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), confirming the persistence of price instability on the island.
According to the official report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded an increase compared to July, following several months of relative moderation.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages, which tend to be the products with the greatest impact on household spending, exhibited mixed behavior, with increases in some categories and decreases in others.
However, the economist Pedro Monreal warned on his X account (formerly Twitter) that the reliability of the published data is questionable and that “many economists believe that the official statistics underestimate inflation.”
According to the explanation, in August "the increase in food prices was lower than the general consumer increase, reversing the trend observed from May to July."
Monreal also warned that the analysis is complicated due to what he termed a "statistical blackout" in the official information on agricultural production, which makes it difficult to identify real trends in food prices.
The specialist pointed out that the combination of a supply crisis and the insufficient reduction of the fiscal deficit have put upward pressure on prices, while the main adjustment has fallen on Cuban households.
"The brutal compression of labor remuneration seems to have been the most straightforward way to adjust real demand 'downwards'," wrote the scholar.
Data from ONEI shows that the total wage fund of the state sector, adjusted for inflation, decreased by 5% between January and July 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
For Monreal, this indicator confirms that the moderation of inflation in previous months was more related to the impoverishment of families than to effective price control.
The escalating inflation remains one of the main challenges for the Cuban regime, set against a backdrop of chronic shortages, a decline in national production, and a loss of purchasing power among state wages.
Frequently Asked Questions about Inflation and the Economic Situation in Cuba
Why has inflation increased in Cuba in August?
The increase in inflation in August is due to the persistent price instability on the island, worsened by a supply crisis and insufficient reduction of the fiscal deficit. These factors have pushed prices upward, particularly impacting Cuban families, who are witnessing a continual erosion of their salaries' purchasing power.
What impact does inflation have on the daily lives of Cubans?
Inflation severely impacts the daily lives of Cubans, as it reduces the purchasing power of salaries, meaning that families struggle to meet their basic needs. Furthermore, shortages and the decline in national production complicate access to essential goods even more, increasing precariousness.
Is the official statistic on inflation in Cuba reliable?
The economist Pedro Monreal points out that the reliability of official data on inflation in Cuba is questionable and that many economists believe that the official figures underestimate the actual inflation. This distrust is due to the statistical opacity and the lack of detailed information about production and food prices.
How does the current economic situation affect tourism in Cuba?
Tourism in Cuba is in crisis, with a significant drop in the number of visitors and in tourism revenue, reflecting the failure of the multimillion-dollar investments in the sector. The low hotel occupancy rates, along with inflation and the overall economic crisis, have further weakened the tourism industry on the island.
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