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A recent report published by The Economist warns that Cuba is heading towards an unprecedented economic and social collapse unless the regime undertakes deep and structural changes.
The document, titled "Cuba is heading for disaster, unless its regime changes drastically", describes a country trapped in the most severe crisis of recent decades, with deteriorating basic services, a paralyzed economy, and massive migration that is draining the island of its human capital.
The analysis suggests that the current situation surpasses even the worst moments of the Special Period. One of the most concerning figures from the report is the average state salary: 6,506 pesos per month, roughly 14 dollars at the informal exchange rate.
However, thousands of workers earn even less, barely 2,500 pesos, around 5 dollars. These incomes make essential products like a carton of eggs (2,800 pesos) or a kilogram of rice (650 pesos) practically inaccessible.
In addition to the economic hardship faced by the Cuban people, there are daily blackouts, prolonged water shortages, and a healthcare system that can only provide 3% of the necessary medications.
The demographic impact is equally devastating. According to the British magazine, since 2020, 2.75 million Cubans have emigrated, which is equivalent to a quarter of the total population.
In 2024 alone, 788,000 people left the country, while 78% of those who remain on the island express a desire to leave.
The migration crisis not only empties homes but also dismantles key professions in the country. The number of family doctors has been reduced by almost half, and sectors such as ballet, sports, and education are experiencing a rapid loss of talent.
The Economist asserts that Cuba displays the lowest productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean, even below Haiti. The sugar industry, a historical symbol of the country, fell to 150,000 tons in 2024-2025, far from the levels of the past.
The depreciation of the Cuban peso —from 24 per dollar in 2019 to over 450 in 2025— combined with inflation and stagnant production, complicates any potential stability.
The only dynamic element within this bleak scenario is the private sector, where more than 11,000 small and medium-sized enterprises provide a third of employment and account for over half of retail trade.
Nonetheless, the government maintains an ambivalent stance, oscillating between allowing its operation and hindering it through regulations and bureaucratic controls.
The political stagnation, according to the report, is the root of the problem.
Raúl Castro, despite his advanced age, continues to influence strategic decisions and impede any opening that could jeopardize the control of the Communist Party.
In this context, the article quotes a phrase that summarizes the perspective of several consulted experts: “The situation is so messed up that there’s no fixing it… The only thing that can be done is to get rid of everything and start from scratch.”
Cuba is an exhausted country, with a collapsed economy and a population that is fleeing. It needs a profound and urgent change. As long as the political system continues to obstruct reforms, the island will keep heading towards an inevitable disaster.
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