Hurricane Rafael continues its movement toward the northwest and is expected to reach an intensity close to that of a "major hurricane"—that is, category 3—as it approaches the western region of Cuba.
According to the latest bulletin from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), at 4:00 a.m. it was located about 190 km southeast of the Island of Youth and 310 km south-southeast of Havana.
The hurricane, currently hovering around category 2, has maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph) and is moving northwest at a speed of 22 km/h (14 mph).
Rafael is expected to continue in this direction throughout the day today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico.
Rafael could rapidly intensify and approach the category of major hurricane before making landfall in western Cuba today. As it crosses Cuba, it may weaken slightly, but it is expected to regain strength in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
It has an estimated minimum central pressure of 970 millibars (28.65 inches), a figure that the NHC indicates is a sign of "a well-organized system that may be intensifying."
Current alerts and warnings
Hurricane Warning: Cayman Islands and the following Cuban provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
Tropical Storm Warning: Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spíritus, and Ciego de Ávila. There is also a tropical storm warning for the Lower and Central Florida Keys, from Key West to the west of the 5 Canal Bridge; Dry Tortugas.
Tropical Storm Alert: Camagüey and Las Tunas.
Currently, hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 km from the center of the system, while tropical storm-force winds reach up to 165 km, impacting a considerable area.
Potential Dangers for the Affected Areas
Winds:
Hurricane conditions are likely in the Cayman Islands in the coming hours, while western Cuba and the Isle of Youth will experience similar conditions today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central-western region of Cuba and the Florida Keys today and tonight.
Rainfall:
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 cm are expected in the Cayman Islands and the western region of Cuba, with isolated amounts of up to 25 cm in mountainous areas. These rains could lead to flash flooding and landslides. In Jamaica and the Florida Keys, accumulations of 2.5 to 7.5 cm are anticipated.
Cyclonic Surge:
The storm surge could raise sea levels by 30 to 90 cm above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and between 2.5 to 3.6 meters along the southern coast of Cuba in areas under hurricane warning, including the Isle of Youth.
Tornadoes:
There is a possibility of tornadoes in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida today.
Surf and Rip Current:
Strong waves are expected in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, with a risk of dangerous rip currents.
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