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Electrical outages persist in Cuba as the week begins with a forecast of severe blackouts and a deficit of 1,400 MW. The island enters the final stretch of January with one thermal power plant out of order, three under maintenance, and others out of service due to high temperatures and a lack of fuel.
The National Electric System (SEN) is facing a new set of critical challenges to ensure energy supply, following a Sunday marked by prolonged power outages and an overload in the networks of the central-eastern region of the country.
From 6:51 a.m. to 10:35 p.m. this Sunday, the electrical service was affected by a maximum of 1,227 MW at 6:30 p.m., primarily impacting the residents of the provinces in the central and eastern parts of the country.
The power outages continued on Monday, starting at 6:05 a.m., due to high energy transfers to that same central-eastern region. At 7:00 a.m., the figures reported by the Electric Union (UNE) reflected an energy availability of 1,790 MW against a demand of 2,000 MW. This left 278 MW affected, exacerbating the discomfort and daily difficulties for thousands of Cuban families.
For the peak hours this Monday, a capacity of 1,909 MW is expected, with a maximum demand of 3,250 MW, which would result in a shortfall of 1,411 MW.
According to the Unión Eléctrica, "42 generation plants are out of service due to fuel issues, with 234 MW distributed, 126 MW at the fuel plant in Moa, and 119 MW at the fuel plant in Mariel, resulting in a total of 479 MW affected for this reason."
It is estimated that at peak time, the Mariel fuel power plant will enter the grid with 119 MW. With this forecast, a generation capacity of 1909 MW and a maximum demand of 3250 MW is expected, resulting in a deficit of 1341 MW. Therefore, if the anticipated conditions hold, a shortfall of 1411 MW is predicted during this period.
Among the main incidents reported, Unit 2 of the Felton Thermal Power Plant (CTE), one of the country's major energy generation sources, is out of service due to a malfunction. This has reduced the available generation capacity and exacerbated the reliance on other already overloaded plants.
Additionally, it should be noted that the units in Santa Cruz, Cienfuegos, and Renté are currently undergoing maintenance, which further limits the system's capacity to meet energy demand.
It should also be added that high temperatures and the deterioration of infrastructure have necessitated the removal of an additional 400 MW from service, highlighting the structural deficiencies of the national electrical system.
To make matters worse, there is still a shortage of fuel. The power plants that rely on this resource to operate remain partially shut down, with 479 MW out of service. This issue, stemming from the lack of credit and the regime's logistical shortcomings, has hindered the acquisition of oil and gas, resulting in more frequent and prolonged blackouts.
From the ruling Communist Party, they have insisted that the solution to the energy crisis requires time and international cooperation. Meanwhile, citizens continue to face the consequences of a collapsed system, with limited prospects for improvement in the short term. In fact, the think tank Cuba Siglo XXI assures that this process of deterioration of the economy and the national electric system, which they have termed the "Haitianization" of the country, could lead to a regime change in 2025.
Among the potential long-term solutions to blackouts are the modernization of existing plants, investment in renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, and the pursuit of strategic partnerships to ensure a more stable fuel supply. However, these initiatives require financing and political will, and therein lies the problem.
The situation of the SEN as of January 27, 2025, reflects the severity of day-to-day life in Cuba. Prolonged blackouts and limitations in electricity generation continue to impact the daily lives of citizens, while structural solutions are neither in sight nor anticipated. The regime's ability to manage this crisis is crucial not only for restoring electrical service but also for regaining the population's trust amid an increasingly strained economic and social landscape.
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