The energy crisis in Cuba could reach a new critical point this summer.
This is the estimation of the renowned Cuban energy expert, Jorge Piñón, a non-resident researcher at the Energy Institute of the University of Texas, who believes the national power grid is at risk of completely collapsing, just as it did three times last year.
In statements given to América Tevé, Piñón warned about the significant deterioration of Cuban thermoelectric plants, many of which operate with outdated technology and face constant breakdowns or require urgent maintenance.
This deterioration has been identified by the expert as the main cause of prolonged blackouts, which in some cases have lasted over 20 hours, severely affecting the daily lives of citizens.
"Cuba is facing an extremely difficult situation right now, with a 50 percent loss in power generation from thermal plants. It has no fuel to provide to the Turkish tankers that are in Havana Bay and Santiago de Cuba. There is also no diesel fuel for the generators," Piñón warned.
The specialist also added that, given the current outlook, the collapse of the national electrical system could be imminent.
"I believe we are going to see a collapse in the national electrical system in the coming months, especially when summer arrives, which is the peak demand period," he stated.
One of the questions raised by the expert is the fate of Cuban heavy crude, which, in theory, should be used in the thermal power plants that are currently out of service.
"What is the regime doing with the Cuban heavy oil that it isn't using in the thermoelectric plants, which are now halted due to breakdowns or maintenance?" Piñón questioned.
He also pointed out that these thermoelectric plants mainly consume domestic oil, which means they do not directly depend on crude oil from Russia, Mexico, or Venezuela.
"Somewhere there is an oversupply of Cuban oil. Where is the Cuban crude going that is not being used as fuel in the thermoelectric plants?" Piñón reiterated.
The impact of the energy crisis on daily life
The issue of blackouts is compounded by fuel shortages.
The Cuban government has recently restricted the sale of premium gasoline exclusively to those who can pay in dollars, at service stations authorized for foreign currency transactions.
This measure has been interpreted by experts and analysts as a deepening of the dollarization of the Cuban economy, contradicting the official messages from the regime, which claim to uphold the primacy of the Cuban peso.
Most citizens who receive salaries in Cuban pesos are increasingly excluded from accessing basic services, thereby exacerbating social and economic inequality on the island.
Oil Arrivals: A Temporary Solution?
Amid this crisis, the arrival of the Russian tanker Akademik Gubkin at Nipe Bay in Holguín has drawn international attention.
The ship, which is carrying about 790,000 barrels of oil valued at approximately 55 million dollars, is included on the sanctions list of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
According to Piñón, this transaction reflects how international sanctions on Russia are affecting its exports, but ironically, they could temporarily benefit Cuba by ensuring fuel supply.
Moreover, the state company Cubametales, controlled by the military conglomerate GAESA, has acquired a shipment of diesel in France, valued at 32 million dollars, which is expected to arrive at the bay of Matanzas on March 4th.
Sufficient supplies to prevent collapse?
Despite these recent fuel acquisitions, Piñón argues that these shipments are not enough to meet the island's growing energy demand.
In fact, there has been a reduction in oil shipments from Mexico, which could further exacerbate the situation.
With the energy infrastructure on the brink of collapse, increasing economic restrictions, and insufficient fuel supply, Cuba could face one of its most challenging summers in terms of energy in recent years, concludes the expert.
The lack of investment in the maintenance of thermoelectric plants and restrictive economic policies seem to be pushing the island towards a new episode of massive blackouts and an unprecedented energy crisis.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Energy Crisis in Cuba
What is the main cause of blackouts in Cuba?
The main cause of blackouts in Cuba is the decay of the thermoelectric plants, which operate with outdated technology and suffer from constant breakdowns. The lack of proper maintenance and the shortage of fuel for the barges and generators exacerbate the situation, leading to prolonged power outages that impact the daily lives of citizens.
Why is Cuban heavy crude not used for generating electricity?
The expert Jorge Piñón questions the fate of Cuban heavy crude, which should be used in the non-operational thermoelectric plants. It is unknown where the Cuban crude is going, as it is not being used as fuel in the power plants, raising questions about its management by the government.
What measures has the Cuban government taken to address the energy crisis?
So far, the measures taken by the Cuban government have been insufficient to resolve the energy crisis. Investments in the tourism sector have been prioritized over electrical infrastructure, leading to criticism and protests from the population, which is suffering from prolonged blackouts and a lack of basic services.
What is the impact of power outages on the daily lives of Cubans?
Power outages in Cuba severely impact daily life, affecting basic activities such as cooking, refrigerating food, and using appliances. Additionally, they create frustration and discontent among the population, who face economic restrictions and inequality in access to services.
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